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Diese Studie analysiert den Schweizer Aktienmarkt unter diesem Blickwinkel. Die Unternehmen des SPI 1) werden nach Kriterien der Kapitalintensität klassifiziert, die den zur Aufrechterhaltung der Produktionskapazitäten erforderlichen Investitionsbedarf oder den durch Reinvestitionen absorbierten Anteil der Cashflows messen. Jedes Unternehmen wird in fünf Gruppen oder Quintile eingeteilt. Das Quintil 1 (q1) entspricht den 20% kapitalintensivsten Unternehmen (HALO). Umgekehrt entspricht das Quintil 5 (q5) den 20% am wenigsten kapitalintensiven Unternehmen.",{"id":1793,"content":1794},"6a3d4ac38ac2749f80a52277",{"root":1795},{"type":168,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":1796,"direction":28},[1797],{"type":173,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":1798,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[1799],{"mode":176,"text":1800,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"Unternehmen, die stark von materiellen Produktionsvermögen abhängen (q1 und q2), sind im Telekombereich und in der Infrastruktur tätig und in den Materialien und im zyklischen Konsum überrepräsentiert (Abbildung 1). Auch die Sektoren Gesundheit und Basiskonsum (Staples) beruhen auf einer starken Basis materieller Vermögenswerte. Umgekehrt umfassen die Kommunikation (ehemals Telekom) und die Informationstechnologie mehrheitlich «asset-light»-Unternehmen (q4 und q5), gefolgt von der Industrie, dem grössten und überdies heterogenen Sektor der Schweiz.","Der HALO","Effekt",{"id":1804,"layout":1127,"colorVariation":269,"imagePosition":270,"image":1805,"imageFit":1832,"imageStyle":279,"imageTextColor":10,"headingLevel":280,"blockName":28,"buttons":1833,"blockType":282,"imageText":28,"title":1766,"content":1834},"6a3d4acd8ac2749f80a52278",{"id":1806,"alt":1807,"landscape":1808,"portrait":28,"folder":60,"thumbnailUrl":1817,"updatedAt":1831,"createdAt":1831},65,"bcge_graph3",{"id":570,"updatedAt":1809,"createdAt":1810,"url":1811,"thumbnailURL":28,"filename":1812,"mimeType":139,"filesize":1813,"width":1814,"height":1669,"focalX":33,"focalY":33,"sizes":1815},"2026-06-25T15:38:04.957Z","2026-06-25T15:38:04.465Z","https:\u002F\u002Fassets.synchrony.ch\u002FBCGE_graph_3.png","BCGE_graph_3.png",83623,1009,{"thumbnail":1816,"sm":1820,"md":1825,"lg":1829,"og":1830},{"url":1817,"width":37,"height":38,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1818,"filename":1819},"https:\u002F\u002Fassets.synchrony.ch\u002FBCGE_graph_3-300x200.webp",6444,"BCGE_graph_3-300x200.webp",{"url":1821,"width":43,"height":1822,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1823,"filename":1824},"https:\u002F\u002Fassets.synchrony.ch\u002FBCGE_graph_3-640x275.webp",275,12578,"BCGE_graph_3-640x275.webp",{"url":1826,"width":1814,"height":1669,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1827,"filename":1828},"https:\u002F\u002Fassets.synchrony.ch\u002FBCGE_graph_3-1009x433.webp",21566,"BCGE_graph_3-1009x433.webp",{"url":1826,"width":1814,"height":1669,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1827,"filename":1828},{"url":28,"width":28,"height":28,"mimeType":28,"filesize":28,"filename":28},"2026-06-25T15:38:07.057Z","contain",[],{"root":1835},{"type":168,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":1836,"direction":28},[1837],{"type":173,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":1838,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[1839],{"mode":176,"text":1766,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},{"id":1841,"colorVariation":757,"blockName":28,"columns":1842,"blockType":340,"titleStart":1852,"titleEnd":1766},"6a3d4b728ac2749f80a52279",[1843],{"id":1844,"content":1845},"6a3d4b8b8ac2749f80a5227a",{"root":1846},{"type":168,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":1847,"direction":28},[1848],{"type":173,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":1849,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[1850],{"mode":176,"text":1851,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"Es wurden zwei Portfolios gebildet, das eine aus den Unternehmen des ersten Quintils, das andere aus jenen des fünften Quintils. Abbildung 2 stellt die Performancedifferenz zwischen diesen beiden Körben dar. Die dunkelblaue Fläche spiegelt eine Outperformance – hauptsächlich seit den 2020er-Jahren bis heute – der HALO-Unternehmen gegenüber den am wenigsten kapitalintensiven Unternehmen wider. In diesem Jahresbeginn 2026 bis Ende März weist der HALO-Korb eine relative Performance von +4,7% bzw. +2,6% gegenüber dem q5-Korb und dem SPI auf.","Outperformance der materiellen Vermögenswerte",{"id":1854,"layout":268,"colorVariation":461,"imagePosition":270,"image":1855,"imageFit":1832,"imageStyle":279,"imageTextColor":10,"headingLevel":280,"blockName":28,"buttons":1884,"blockType":282,"imageText":28,"title":1766,"content":1885},"6a3d4b988ac2749f80a5227b",{"id":1856,"alt":1857,"landscape":1858,"portrait":28,"folder":60,"thumbnailUrl":1868,"updatedAt":1882,"createdAt":1883},66,"bcge_graph2",{"id":571,"updatedAt":1859,"createdAt":1860,"url":1861,"thumbnailURL":28,"filename":1862,"mimeType":139,"filesize":1863,"width":1864,"height":1865,"focalX":33,"focalY":33,"sizes":1866},"2026-06-25T15:39:26.360Z","2026-06-25T15:39:26.154Z","https:\u002F\u002Fassets.synchrony.ch\u002FBCGE_graph_2.png","BCGE_graph_2.png",77379,964,476,{"thumbnail":1867,"sm":1871,"md":1876,"lg":1880,"og":1881},{"url":1868,"width":37,"height":38,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1869,"filename":1870},"https:\u002F\u002Fassets.synchrony.ch\u002FBCGE_graph_2-300x200.webp",4798,"BCGE_graph_2-300x200.webp",{"url":1872,"width":43,"height":1873,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1874,"filename":1875},"https:\u002F\u002Fassets.synchrony.ch\u002FBCGE_graph_2-640x316.webp",316,11746,"BCGE_graph_2-640x316.webp",{"url":1877,"width":1864,"height":1865,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1878,"filename":1879},"https:\u002F\u002Fassets.synchrony.ch\u002FBCGE_graph_2-964x476.webp",20342,"BCGE_graph_2-964x476.webp",{"url":1877,"width":1864,"height":1865,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1878,"filename":1879},{"url":28,"width":28,"height":28,"mimeType":28,"filesize":28,"filename":28},"2026-06-29T07:33:55.471Z","2026-06-25T15:39:27.089Z",[],{"root":1886},{"type":168,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":1887,"direction":28},[1888],{"type":173,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":1889,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[1890],{"mode":176,"text":1891,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"Die 2010er-Jahre waren von einem relativen Fehlen von Beschränkungen beim physischen Kapital geprägt, verbunden mit einer moderaten Inflation. Niedrige Kapitalkosten, verbunden mit tiefen Zinssätzen, erlaubten es den Anlegern, sich auf einen langfristigen Horizont auszurichten, was das Halten von Vermögenswerten mit langer Duration begünstigte. Diese Präferenz trug zu einem Kapitalabfluss aus den materiellen Vermögenswerten hin zu immateriellen oder «asset-light»-Finanzwerten bei. Dies spiegelt sich in Abbildung 2 in einer Underperformance der kapitalintensiven Unternehmen zwischen 2010 und 2019 wider.",{"id":1893,"colorVariation":239,"blockName":28,"columns":1894,"blockType":340,"titleStart":1904,"titleEnd":1766},"6a3d4bbb8ac2749f80a5227c",[1895],{"id":1896,"content":1897},"6a3d4bbe8ac2749f80a5227d",{"root":1898},{"type":168,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":1899,"direction":28},[1900],{"type":173,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":1901,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[1902],{"mode":176,"text":1903,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"Diese Beziehung kehrte sich mit dem inflationären Schock nach Covid um, dessen Wirkung durch die Energiekrisen verschärft wurde. Mehrere Faktoren spielen eine Rolle. Eine Nachfrage, die auf die Beschränkungen der physischen Kapazität stösst, mit einer Wirtschaft, die nicht in der Lage ist, die Basisgüter zu liefern, verbunden mit einem erhöhten Capex-Bedarf zur Stützung der Produktionskapazitäten in einem Kontext der Reregionalisierung. Der starke Zinsanstieg (10-jährige deutsche Bundesanleihe) ab 2020 in Abbildung 3 spiegelt dies wider. Dieser Regimewechsel geht einher mit einer Erholung der sogenannten Value-Unternehmen, die Ähnlichkeiten mit den HALO-Titeln aufweisen. Sie sind in der Regel stärker mit physischen Vermögenswerten ausgestattet, generieren Cashflows kürzerfristig und sind weniger von hohen Zinssätzen betroffen. ","Rotation hin zu Value-Unternehmen",{"id":1906,"layout":268,"colorVariation":902,"imagePosition":934,"image":1907,"imageFit":1832,"imageStyle":279,"imageTextColor":10,"headingLevel":280,"blockName":28,"buttons":1936,"blockType":282,"imageText":28,"title":1766,"content":1937},"6a3d4bfb8ac2749f80a5227e",{"id":1908,"alt":1909,"landscape":1910,"portrait":28,"folder":60,"thumbnailUrl":1920,"updatedAt":1934,"createdAt":1935},67,"bcge_graph4",{"id":593,"updatedAt":1911,"createdAt":1912,"url":1913,"thumbnailURL":28,"filename":1914,"mimeType":139,"filesize":1915,"width":1916,"height":1917,"focalX":33,"focalY":33,"sizes":1918},"2026-06-25T15:41:05.661Z","2026-06-25T15:41:05.058Z","https:\u002F\u002Fassets.synchrony.ch\u002FBCGE_graph_4.png","BCGE_graph_4.png",125438,970,449,{"thumbnail":1919,"sm":1923,"md":1928,"lg":1932,"og":1933},{"url":1920,"width":37,"height":38,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1921,"filename":1922},"https:\u002F\u002Fassets.synchrony.ch\u002FBCGE_graph_4-300x200.webp",7460,"BCGE_graph_4-300x200.webp",{"url":1924,"width":43,"height":1925,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1926,"filename":1927},"https:\u002F\u002Fassets.synchrony.ch\u002FBCGE_graph_4-640x296.webp",296,18978,"BCGE_graph_4-640x296.webp",{"url":1929,"width":1916,"height":1917,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1930,"filename":1931},"https:\u002F\u002Fassets.synchrony.ch\u002FBCGE_graph_4-970x449.webp",32018,"BCGE_graph_4-970x449.webp",{"url":1929,"width":1916,"height":1917,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1930,"filename":1931},{"url":28,"width":28,"height":28,"mimeType":28,"filesize":28,"filename":28},"2026-06-29T07:33:53.265Z","2026-06-25T15:41:06.453Z",[],{"root":1938},{"type":168,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":1939,"direction":28},[1940],{"type":173,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":1941,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[1942],{"mode":176,"text":1943,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"Das Aufkommen der KI ist nicht zyklisch, sondern strukturell. Es setzt die informationellen oder analytischen Geschäftsmodelle unter Druck, die sich replizieren lassen und die ewige wiederkehrende Erträge versprachen. Heute wird der Endwert dieser Wachstumsmodelle in Frage gestellt. Das aktuelle Paradigma begünstigt disziplinierte Kapitalallokatoren, die Cashflow-Generierung und das Halten von Vermögenswerten, deren Wertschöpfung kontrollierbar ist.",{"id":1945,"colorVariation":345,"blockName":28,"columns":1946,"blockType":340,"titleStart":1962,"titleEnd":1766},"6a3d4c728ac2749f80a52280",[1947],{"id":1948,"content":1949},"6a3d4c808ac2749f80a52281",{"root":1950},{"type":168,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":1951,"direction":28},[1952,1956,1958],{"type":173,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":1953,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[1954],{"mode":176,"text":1955,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"Unsere Analyse identifiziert diese Hebel. Es kann sich um netzintegrierte Vermögenswerte handeln, die einer starken Regulierung unterliegen und mit Konzessionsportfolios ausgestattet sind, wie Energieversorger oder Telekomunternehmen. Der Besitz eines physischen Produktions- oder Vertriebsnetzes, charakteristisch für Unternehmen der Materialien und des Basiskonsums, ist ein Differenzierungsmerkmal, ebenso wie das Halten von Patenten, die die Entwicklung von Molekülen in der Gesundheit und den Materialien schützen. Ausgestattet mit einem Markenerbe und einer Kundenbeziehung, aus der sie Kapital schlagen, ziehen die Akteure des zyklischen und des Basiskonsums ihren Vorteil. ",{"type":173,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":1957,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[],{"type":173,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":1959,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[1960],{"mode":176,"text":1961,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"Zu betonen ist, dass ein Geschäftsmodell dauerhaft und «asset-light» sein kann. Die Barriere und die geschäftskritische Dimension sind wichtiger als das Gewicht der Vermögenswerte. Dies ist der Fall bei Galenica, die ein physisches Vertriebsnetz kontrolliert, bei Temenos, die in einen regulatorischen Rahmen eingebettete Kern-Infrastruktursoftware entwickelt, oder bei Sika, die ein Netz, eine physische Produktion und Patente hält, oder auch bei ABB, die physische Energie- und Automatisierungskapazitäten bereitstellt.","Zu bevorzugende Geschäftsmodelle",{"id":1964,"colorVariation":902,"blockName":28,"columns":1965,"blockType":340,"titleStart":1983,"titleEnd":1766},"6a3d4c8f8ac2749f80a52282",[1966],{"id":1967,"content":1968},"6a3d4c978ac2749f80a52283",{"root":1969},{"type":168,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":1970,"direction":28},[1971,1975,1977,1981],{"type":173,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":1972,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[1973],{"mode":176,"text":1974,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"Indem der Markt die Energie und die Produktionskapazitäten abwertete und den Reichtum in den immateriellen Werten konzentrierte, hat er die Verwundbarkeit der Vermögensportfolios erhöht. Da die HALO-Modelle in zahlreichen Sektoren präsent sind, ist die Selektivität im Hinblick auf die Dauerhaftigkeit des Geschäftsmodells entscheidend. In dieser Hinsicht erlaubt die aktive Verwaltung, im Gegensatz zur passiven Verwaltung, eine selektive Teilnahme am umfangreichen Infrastrukturausbau und das Kapitalisieren der durch die KI erzeugten Dispersion.",{"type":173,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":1976,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[],{"type":173,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":1978,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[1979],{"mode":176,"text":1980,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"(1) Swiss Performance Index (exkl. Finanzen und Immobilien)",{"type":173,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":1982,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[],"Die HALO-Unternehmen gut positioniert",{"id":1985,"colorVariation":269,"blockName":28,"columns":1986,"blockType":340,"titleStart":1766,"titleEnd":1766},"6a42af764ec8d2260a7e3bc9",[1987],{"id":1988,"content":1989},"6a42af794ec8d2260a7e3bca",{"root":1990},{"type":168,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":1991,"direction":28},[1992],{"type":173,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":1993,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":4},[1994,1996],{"mode":176,"text":1995,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":4,"version":4},"Raphaël Membrez",{"mode":176,"text":1997,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4}," ist Fondsmanager, Mitglied des Teams für die Überzeugungsverwaltung Schweizer Aktien bei der BCGE Asset Management. Zuvor war er Analyst und Co-Manager eines Schweizer Aktienfonds bei Landolt & Cie (heute ODDO BHF Suisse). Er absolvierte ein Executive Program an der HEC Paris, ist Inhaber eines Master in Finance der Warwick Business School und eines Bachelors der Universität Freiburg (Magna cum laude) sowie CFA-Charterholder.",{"id":1073,"alt":1999,"landscape":2000,"portrait":28,"folder":1706,"thumbnailUrl":2010,"updatedAt":2025,"createdAt":2026},"Membrez_Raphael-publications",{"id":2001,"updatedAt":2002,"createdAt":2003,"url":2004,"thumbnailURL":28,"filename":2005,"mimeType":30,"filesize":2006,"width":2007,"height":2007,"focalX":33,"focalY":33,"sizes":2008},342,"2026-07-31T09:17:59.038Z","2026-07-31T09:17:58.853Z","https:\u002F\u002Fassets.synchrony.ch\u002FRaphaelMembrez_list.webp","RaphaelMembrez_list.webp",49068,800,{"thumbnail":2009,"sm":2013,"md":2017,"lg":2020,"og":2021},{"url":2010,"width":37,"height":38,"mimeType":30,"filesize":2011,"filename":2012},"https:\u002F\u002Fassets.synchrony.ch\u002FRaphaelMembrez_list-300x200.webp",4008,"RaphaelMembrez_list-300x200.webp",{"url":2014,"width":43,"height":43,"mimeType":30,"filesize":2015,"filename":2016},"https:\u002F\u002Fassets.synchrony.ch\u002FRaphaelMembrez_list-640x640.webp",21874,"RaphaelMembrez_list-640x640.webp",{"url":2018,"width":2007,"height":2007,"mimeType":30,"filesize":2006,"filename":2019},"https:\u002F\u002Fassets.synchrony.ch\u002FRaphaelMembrez_list-800x800.webp","RaphaelMembrez_list-800x800.webp",{"url":2018,"width":2007,"height":2007,"mimeType":30,"filesize":2006,"filename":2019},{"url":2022,"width":56,"height":57,"mimeType":30,"filesize":2023,"filename":2024},"https:\u002F\u002Fassets.synchrony.ch\u002FRaphaelMembrez_list-1200x630.webp",45830,"RaphaelMembrez_list-1200x630.webp","2026-07-31T09:17:59.860Z","2026-07-09T15:46:15.447Z","Eine Kolumne von Raphaël Membrez -\nErschienen in Allnews - 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",[],{"id":485,"layout":2088,"previewImage":2289,"title":1742,"excerpt":2297,"publishedDate":2028,"tags":2298,"slug":2032,"updatedAt":2033,"createdAt":2034},[2089,2125,2135,2146,2166,2182,2193,2210,2222,2239,2257,2277],{"id":1645,"colorVariation":239,"backgroundImage":2090,"foregroundImage":2105,"blockName":28,"blockType":256,"eyebrow":2113,"title":1742,"content":2114},{"id":1647,"alt":1648,"landscape":2091,"portrait":2098,"folder":1706,"thumbnailUrl":1659,"updatedAt":1707,"createdAt":1708},{"id":1650,"updatedAt":1651,"createdAt":1652,"url":1653,"thumbnailURL":28,"filename":1654,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1655,"width":75,"height":1656,"focalX":33,"focalY":33,"sizes":2092},{"thumbnail":2093,"sm":2094,"md":2095,"lg":2096,"og":2097},{"url":1659,"width":37,"height":38,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1660,"filename":1661},{"url":1663,"width":43,"height":1664,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1665,"filename":1666},{"url":1668,"width":48,"height":1669,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1670,"filename":1671},{"url":1673,"width":75,"height":1656,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1655,"filename":1674},{"url":1676,"width":56,"height":57,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1677,"filename":1678},{"id":1680,"updatedAt":1681,"createdAt":1682,"url":1683,"thumbnailURL":28,"filename":1684,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1685,"width":1686,"height":1687,"focalX":33,"focalY":33,"sizes":2099},{"thumbnail":2100,"sm":2101,"md":2102,"lg":2103,"og":2104},{"url":1690,"width":37,"height":38,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1691,"filename":1692},{"url":1694,"width":43,"height":1695,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1696,"filename":1697},{"url":1699,"width":1686,"height":1687,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1685,"filename":1700},{"url":1699,"width":1686,"height":1687,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1685,"filename":1700},{"url":1703,"width":56,"height":57,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1704,"filename":1705},{"id":1710,"alt":1711,"landscape":2106,"portrait":28,"folder":1706,"thumbnailUrl":1721,"updatedAt":1739,"createdAt":1740},{"id":1713,"updatedAt":1714,"createdAt":1715,"url":1716,"thumbnailURL":28,"filename":1717,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1718,"width":75,"height":1656,"focalX":33,"focalY":33,"sizes":2107},{"thumbnail":2108,"sm":2109,"md":2110,"lg":2111,"og":2112},{"url":1721,"width":37,"height":38,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1722,"filename":1723},{"url":1725,"width":43,"height":1664,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1726,"filename":1727},{"url":1729,"width":48,"height":1669,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1730,"filename":1731},{"url":1733,"width":75,"height":1656,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1718,"filename":1734},{"url":1736,"width":56,"height":57,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1737,"filename":1738},"29 avril 2026",{"root":2115},{"type":168,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2116,"direction":28},[2117,2121],{"type":173,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2118,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[2119],{"mode":176,"text":2120,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"Chronique de Raphaël Membrez ",{"type":173,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2122,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[2123],{"mode":176,"text":2124,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"Parue dans Allnews - Avril 2026",{"id":1755,"colorVariation":269,"blockName":28,"columns":2126,"blockType":340,"titleStart":169,"titleEnd":169},[2127],{"id":1758,"content":2128},{"root":2129},{"type":168,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2130,"direction":28},[2131],{"type":173,"format":648,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2132,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[2133],{"mode":176,"text":2134,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"Jusqu’à récemment, le marché valorisait certaines énergies comme des actifs en déclin et la technologie comme un actif en croissance perpétuelle. Or, le contexte changé et les deux hypothèses sont simultanément mises au banc de test avec des résultats aux effets sans précédent.",{"id":1768,"colorVariation":902,"blockName":28,"columns":2136,"blockType":340,"titleStart":2145,"titleEnd":169},[2137],{"id":1771,"content":2138},{"root":2139},{"type":168,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2140,"direction":28},[2141],{"type":173,"format":648,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2142,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[2143],{"mode":176,"text":2144,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"Tout d’abord, les tensions géopolitiques actuelles mettent une prime sur les ressources énergétiques, alors que l’innovation accélère plus rapidement que les capacités, posant une contrainte physique supplémentaire sur la croissance. Tiré par la déglobalisation et l’électrification, le besoin en investissement (capex) est colossal. Par ailleurs, on percevait jusqu’à présent l’intelligence artificiel (IA) comme un choc de productivité uniforme, bénéficiant à chaque société de façon indifférenciée. Le lancement de « Claude » pour le secteur juridique a fait vaciller en bourse les leaders établis et illustre ce nouveau paradigme. Or, dans ce contexte, identifier les acteurs qui disposent d’actifs tangibles qui protègent du risque d’érosion des avantages compétitifs dû à l’adoption de l’IA, est crucial.","Changement de paradigme",{"id":1781,"colorVariation":239,"blockName":28,"columns":2147,"blockType":340,"titleStart":2164,"titleEnd":2165},[2148,2156],{"id":1784,"content":2149},{"root":2150},{"type":168,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2151,"direction":28},[2152],{"type":173,"format":648,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2153,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[2154],{"mode":176,"text":2155,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"L’acronyme HALO fait référence à ces sociétés qui détiennent une base substantielle d’actifs tangibles (heavy assets) et dont l’obsolescence (due à l’IA) est moindre (low obsolescence). Cette étude analyse le marché des actions suisses sous cet angle. Les sociétés du SPI 1) sont classées selon des critères d’intensité capitalistique qui mesurent l’investissement nécessaire au maintien des capacités de productions ou la part des flux de trésorerie absorbée par le réinvestissement. Chacune des sociétés est classé en cinq groupes, ou quintiles. Le quintile 1 (q1) correspond aux 20% des sociétés les plus intensives en capital (HALO). A l’inverse, le quintile 5 (q5) correspond aux 20% des sociétés les moins intensives en capital.",{"id":1793,"content":2157},{"root":2158},{"type":168,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2159,"direction":28},[2160],{"type":173,"format":648,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2161,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[2162],{"mode":176,"text":2163,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"Les sociétés fortement dépendantes d’actifs productifs tangibles (q1 et q2) opèrent dans les télécoms, l’infrastructure et sont surreprésentées dans les matériaux et la consommation discrétionnaire (figure 1). Les secteurs de la santé et de la consommation de base (staples) reposent eux-aussi sur une forte base d’actifs tangibles. A l’inverse, la communication (ex-télécoms) et les technologies de l’information comportent une majorité de sociétés « asset-light » (q4 et q5), suivi par l’industrie, le plus large secteur en Suisse de surcroît hétérogène","L’effet de"," HALO",{"id":1804,"layout":1127,"colorVariation":269,"imagePosition":270,"image":2167,"imageFit":1832,"imageStyle":279,"imageTextColor":10,"headingLevel":280,"blockName":28,"buttons":2175,"blockType":282,"imageText":28,"title":169,"content":2176},{"id":1806,"alt":1807,"landscape":2168,"portrait":28,"folder":60,"thumbnailUrl":1817,"updatedAt":1831,"createdAt":1831},{"id":570,"updatedAt":1809,"createdAt":1810,"url":1811,"thumbnailURL":28,"filename":1812,"mimeType":139,"filesize":1813,"width":1814,"height":1669,"focalX":33,"focalY":33,"sizes":2169},{"thumbnail":2170,"sm":2171,"md":2172,"lg":2173,"og":2174},{"url":1817,"width":37,"height":38,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1818,"filename":1819},{"url":1821,"width":43,"height":1822,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1823,"filename":1824},{"url":1826,"width":1814,"height":1669,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1827,"filename":1828},{"url":1826,"width":1814,"height":1669,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1827,"filename":1828},{"url":28,"width":28,"height":28,"mimeType":28,"filesize":28,"filename":28},[],{"root":2177},{"type":168,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2178,"direction":28},[2179],{"type":173,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2180,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[2181],{"mode":176,"text":1766,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},{"id":1841,"colorVariation":757,"blockName":28,"columns":2183,"blockType":340,"titleStart":2192,"titleEnd":1766},[2184],{"id":1844,"content":2185},{"root":2186},{"type":168,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2187,"direction":28},[2188],{"type":173,"format":648,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2189,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[2190],{"mode":176,"text":2191,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"Deux portefeuilles ont été créé, l’un composé des sociétés du premier quintile et l’autre du cinquième quintile. La figure 2 représente la différence de performance entre ces deux paniers. La surface bleu foncé reflète une surperformance, principalement depuis les années 2020 à ce jour, des sociétés HALO vis-à-vis des sociétés les moins intensives en capital. Sur ce début d’année 2026 à fin mars, le panier HALO affiche une performance relative de +4.7% et de +2.6% vis-à-vis du panier q5 et du SPI, respectivement.  ","Surperformance des actifs tangibles ",{"id":1854,"layout":268,"colorVariation":461,"imagePosition":270,"image":2194,"imageFit":1832,"imageStyle":279,"imageTextColor":10,"headingLevel":280,"blockName":28,"buttons":2202,"blockType":282,"imageText":28,"title":169,"content":2203},{"id":1856,"alt":1857,"landscape":2195,"portrait":28,"folder":60,"thumbnailUrl":1868,"updatedAt":1882,"createdAt":1883},{"id":571,"updatedAt":1859,"createdAt":1860,"url":1861,"thumbnailURL":28,"filename":1862,"mimeType":139,"filesize":1863,"width":1864,"height":1865,"focalX":33,"focalY":33,"sizes":2196},{"thumbnail":2197,"sm":2198,"md":2199,"lg":2200,"og":2201},{"url":1868,"width":37,"height":38,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1869,"filename":1870},{"url":1872,"width":43,"height":1873,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1874,"filename":1875},{"url":1877,"width":1864,"height":1865,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1878,"filename":1879},{"url":1877,"width":1864,"height":1865,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1878,"filename":1879},{"url":28,"width":28,"height":28,"mimeType":28,"filesize":28,"filename":28},[],{"root":2204},{"type":168,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2205,"direction":28},[2206],{"type":173,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2207,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[2208],{"mode":176,"text":2209,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"Les années 2010 ont été marquées par une relative absence de contraintes sur le capital physique, assorti d’une inflation modérée. Un faible coût du capital lié à des taux d’intérêt bas permettait aux investisseurs de se projeter sur un horizon de long-terme, favorisant la détention d’actifs à duration longue. Cette préférence a contribué à une sortie de capitaux hors des actifs tangibles vers des actifs financiers intangibles ou « asset-light ». Cela se reflète sur la figure 2 par une sous-performance des sociétés à forte intensité capitalistique entre 2010 et 2019.",{"id":1893,"colorVariation":239,"blockName":28,"columns":2211,"blockType":340,"titleStart":2220,"titleEnd":2221},[2212],{"id":1896,"content":2213},{"root":2214},{"type":168,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2215,"direction":28},[2216],{"type":173,"format":648,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2217,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[2218],{"mode":176,"text":2219,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"Cette relation s’est inversée avec le choc inflationniste post-covid et son effet exacerbé par les crises énergétiques. Plusieurs facteurs sont en jeu. Une demande qui se heurte aux contraintes de capacité physique, avec une économie incapable de fournir les biens de bases, assortit d’un besoin accru en capex pour soutenir les capacités de production dans un contexte de ré-régionalisation. La forte hausse des taux d’intérêt (Bund allemand à 10 ans) dès 2020 sur la figure 3 en est le reflet. Ce changement de régime est associé à un rebond des sociétés dites de valeur qui partagent des similitudes avec les titres HALO. Elles sont généralement plus fortement dotées en actifs physiques, génèrent des flux de cash à plus court terme et sont moins impactées par des taux d’intérêt élevés."," Rotation vers les sociétés de valeur ","  ",{"id":1906,"layout":268,"colorVariation":902,"imagePosition":934,"image":2223,"imageFit":1832,"imageStyle":279,"imageTextColor":10,"headingLevel":280,"blockName":28,"buttons":2231,"blockType":282,"imageText":28,"title":169,"content":2232},{"id":1908,"alt":1909,"landscape":2224,"portrait":28,"folder":60,"thumbnailUrl":1920,"updatedAt":1934,"createdAt":1935},{"id":593,"updatedAt":1911,"createdAt":1912,"url":1913,"thumbnailURL":28,"filename":1914,"mimeType":139,"filesize":1915,"width":1916,"height":1917,"focalX":33,"focalY":33,"sizes":2225},{"thumbnail":2226,"sm":2227,"md":2228,"lg":2229,"og":2230},{"url":1920,"width":37,"height":38,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1921,"filename":1922},{"url":1924,"width":43,"height":1925,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1926,"filename":1927},{"url":1929,"width":1916,"height":1917,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1930,"filename":1931},{"url":1929,"width":1916,"height":1917,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1930,"filename":1931},{"url":28,"width":28,"height":28,"mimeType":28,"filesize":28,"filename":28},[],{"root":2233},{"type":168,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2234,"direction":28},[2235],{"type":173,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2236,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[2237],{"mode":176,"text":2238,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"L’émergence de l’IA n’est pas cyclique, mais structurelle. Elle met sous pression les modèles d’affaires informationnels ou analytiques pouvant être répliqués, qui promettaient des revenus récurrents perpétuels. Aujourd’hui la valeur terminale de ces modèles de croissance est remise en cause. Le paradigme actuel favorise les allocateurs de capital disciplinés, la génération de cash-flow et la détention d’actifs dont la création de valeur est contrôlable.",{"id":1945,"colorVariation":345,"blockName":28,"columns":2240,"blockType":340,"titleStart":2256,"titleEnd":1766},[2241],{"id":1948,"content":2242},{"root":2243},{"type":168,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2244,"direction":28},[2245,2249,2252],{"type":173,"format":648,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2246,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[2247],{"mode":176,"text":2248,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"Notre analyse identifie ces leviers. Il peut s’agir d’actifs intégrés en réseau, soumis à une forte régulation et dotés de portefeuille de concessions comme les fournisseurs d’énergie ou les télécoms. La possession d’un réseau physique de production ou de distribution, caractéristique des sociétés des matériaux et de la consommation de base, est un différentiateur, tout comme la détention de patentes qui protègent le développement de molécules dans la santé et les matériaux. Dotées d’un héritage de marques et capitalisant sur une relation clientèle, les acteurs de la consommation discrétionnaire et de base tirent leur épingle du jeu.",{"type":173,"format":648,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2250,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[2251],{"mode":176,"text":294,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},{"type":173,"format":648,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2253,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[2254],{"mode":176,"text":2255,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"Il faut relever qu’un modèle d’affaire peut être pérenne et « asset-light ». La barrière et la mission critique est plus importante que la lourdeur des actifs. C’est le cas de Galenica qui contrôle un réseau de distribution physique, Temenos, qui développe des logiciels cœurs d’infrastructure engrenés dans un cadre régulatoire, ou Sika, qui détient un réseau, une production physique et des patentes, ou encore ABB, qui fournit des capacités physiques énergétiques et d’automatisation.","Modèles d’affaires à favoriser ",{"id":1964,"colorVariation":902,"blockName":28,"columns":2258,"blockType":340,"titleStart":2276,"titleEnd":1766},[2259],{"id":1967,"content":2260},{"root":2261},{"type":168,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2262,"direction":28},[2263,2267,2270,2274],{"type":173,"format":648,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2264,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[2265],{"mode":176,"text":2266,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"En dévalorisant l’énergie, les capacités de productions et en concentrant la richesse dans les intangibles, le marché a accru la vulnérabilité des portefeuilles d’actifs. Les modèles HALO étant présent dans de nombreux secteurs, la sélectivité dans une optique de durabilité du modèle d’affaire est décisive. A cet égard, la gestion active, au contraire de la gestion passive, permets de participer sélectivement au vaste déploiement d’infrastructure et de capitaliser sur la dispersion engendrée par l’IA.",{"type":173,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2268,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[2269],{"mode":176,"text":294,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},{"type":173,"format":648,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2271,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[2272],{"mode":176,"text":2273,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"1) Swiss Performance Index (excl. finance et immobilier)",{"type":173,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2275,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[],"Les sociétés HALO bien positionnées",{"id":1985,"colorVariation":269,"blockName":28,"columns":2278,"blockType":340},[2279],{"id":1988,"content":2280},{"root":2281},{"type":168,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2282,"direction":28},[2283],{"type":173,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2284,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":4},[2285,2287],{"mode":176,"text":2286,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":4,"version":4},"Raphaël Membrez ",{"mode":176,"text":2288,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"est gérant de fonds, membre de l’équipe de gestion de convictions actions suisses chez BCGE Asset Management. Auparavant, il a été analyste et co-gérant d’un fonds en actions suisses chez Landolt & Cie (actuellement ODDO BHF Suisse). Il a complété un Executive Program à HEC Paris, titulaire d’un Master en Finance de Warwick Business School et d’un Bachelor de l’Université de Fribourg (Magna cum laude) et détenteur du CFA.",{"id":1073,"alt":1999,"landscape":2290,"portrait":28,"folder":1706,"thumbnailUrl":2010,"updatedAt":2025,"createdAt":2026},{"id":2001,"updatedAt":2002,"createdAt":2003,"url":2004,"thumbnailURL":28,"filename":2005,"mimeType":30,"filesize":2006,"width":2007,"height":2007,"focalX":33,"focalY":33,"sizes":2291},{"thumbnail":2292,"sm":2293,"md":2294,"lg":2295,"og":2296},{"url":2010,"width":37,"height":38,"mimeType":30,"filesize":2011,"filename":2012},{"url":2014,"width":43,"height":43,"mimeType":30,"filesize":2015,"filename":2016},{"url":2018,"width":2007,"height":2007,"mimeType":30,"filesize":2006,"filename":2019},{"url":2018,"width":2007,"height":2007,"mimeType":30,"filesize":2006,"filename":2019},{"url":2022,"width":56,"height":57,"mimeType":30,"filesize":2023,"filename":2024},"Chronique de Raphaël 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them.",[],{"id":485,"layout":2348,"previewImage":2537,"title":1742,"excerpt":2545,"publishedDate":2028,"tags":2546,"slug":2032,"updatedAt":2033,"createdAt":2034},[2349,2385,2395,2406,2426,2442,2453,2470,2481,2498,2509,2526],{"id":1645,"colorVariation":239,"backgroundImage":2350,"foregroundImage":2365,"blockName":28,"blockType":256,"eyebrow":2373,"title":1742,"content":2374},{"id":1647,"alt":1648,"landscape":2351,"portrait":2358,"folder":1706,"thumbnailUrl":1659,"updatedAt":1707,"createdAt":1708},{"id":1650,"updatedAt":1651,"createdAt":1652,"url":1653,"thumbnailURL":28,"filename":1654,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1655,"width":75,"height":1656,"focalX":33,"focalY":33,"sizes":2352},{"thumbnail":2353,"sm":2354,"md":2355,"lg":2356,"og":2357},{"url":1659,"width":37,"height":38,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1660,"filename":1661},{"url":1663,"width":43,"height":1664,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1665,"filename":1666},{"url":1668,"width":48,"height":1669,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1670,"filename":1671},{"url":1673,"width":75,"height":1656,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1655,"filename":1674},{"url":1676,"width":56,"height":57,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1677,"filename":1678},{"id":1680,"updatedAt":1681,"createdAt":1682,"url":1683,"thumbnailURL":28,"filename":1684,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1685,"width":1686,"height":1687,"focalX":33,"focalY":33,"sizes":2359},{"thumbnail":2360,"sm":2361,"md":2362,"lg":2363,"og":2364},{"url":1690,"width":37,"height":38,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1691,"filename":1692},{"url":1694,"width":43,"height":1695,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1696,"filename":1697},{"url":1699,"width":1686,"height":1687,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1685,"filename":1700},{"url":1699,"width":1686,"height":1687,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1685,"filename":1700},{"url":1703,"width":56,"height":57,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1704,"filename":1705},{"id":1710,"alt":1711,"landscape":2366,"portrait":28,"folder":1706,"thumbnailUrl":1721,"updatedAt":1739,"createdAt":1740},{"id":1713,"updatedAt":1714,"createdAt":1715,"url":1716,"thumbnailURL":28,"filename":1717,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1718,"width":75,"height":1656,"focalX":33,"focalY":33,"sizes":2367},{"thumbnail":2368,"sm":2369,"md":2370,"lg":2371,"og":2372},{"url":1721,"width":37,"height":38,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1722,"filename":1723},{"url":1725,"width":43,"height":1664,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1726,"filename":1727},{"url":1729,"width":48,"height":1669,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1730,"filename":1731},{"url":1733,"width":75,"height":1656,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1718,"filename":1734},{"url":1736,"width":56,"height":57,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1737,"filename":1738},"29 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2026",{"id":1755,"colorVariation":269,"blockName":28,"columns":2386,"blockType":340,"titleStart":169,"titleEnd":169},[2387],{"id":1758,"content":2388},{"root":2389},{"type":168,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2390,"direction":28},[2391],{"type":173,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2392,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[2393],{"mode":176,"text":2394,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"Until recently, the market valued certain energies as declining assets and technology as an asset in perpetual growth. Yet the context has changed and both assumptions are being put to the test simultaneously, with results whose effects are unprecedented.",{"id":1768,"colorVariation":902,"blockName":28,"columns":2396,"blockType":340,"titleStart":2405,"titleEnd":1766},[2397],{"id":1771,"content":2398},{"root":2399},{"type":168,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2400,"direction":28},[2401],{"type":173,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2402,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[2403],{"mode":176,"text":2404,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"First of all, the current geopolitical tensions place a premium on energy resources, while innovation accelerates faster than capacity, imposing an additional physical constraint on growth. Driven by deglobalisation and electrification, the investment requirement (capex) is colossal. Furthermore, artificial intelligence (AI) had until now been perceived as a uniform productivity shock, benefiting each company indiscriminately. The launch of \"Claude\" for the legal sector shook the established leaders on the stock market and illustrates this new paradigm. In this context, then, identifying the players that hold tangible assets protecting against the risk of erosion of competitive advantages due to AI adoption is crucial.","Paradigm shift",{"id":1781,"colorVariation":239,"blockName":28,"columns":2407,"blockType":340,"titleStart":2424,"titleEnd":2425},[2408,2416],{"id":1784,"content":2409},{"root":2410},{"type":168,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2411,"direction":28},[2412],{"type":173,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2413,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[2414],{"mode":176,"text":2415,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"The acronym HALO refers to those companies that hold a substantial base of tangible assets (heavy assets) and whose obsolescence (due to AI) is lower (low obsolescence). This study analyses the Swiss equity market from this angle. The companies of the SPI 1) are classified according to capital-intensity criteria that measure the investment required to maintain production capacity or the share of cash flow absorbed by reinvestment. Each company is classified into five groups, or quintiles. Quintile 1 (q1) corresponds to the 20% most capital-intensive companies (HALO). Conversely, quintile 5 (q5) corresponds to the 20% least capital-intensive companies.",{"id":1793,"content":2417},{"root":2418},{"type":168,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2419,"direction":28},[2420],{"type":173,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2421,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[2422],{"mode":176,"text":2423,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"Companies heavily dependent on tangible productive assets (q1 and q2) operate in telecoms, infrastructure and are over-represented in materials and discretionary consumption (figure 1). The healthcare and consumer staples sectors likewise rest on a strong base of tangible assets. Conversely, communication (ex-telecoms) and information technology comprise a majority of \"asset-light\" companies (q4 and q5), followed by industry, the largest sector in Switzerland and moreover heterogeneous.","The HALO","  effect",{"id":1804,"layout":1127,"colorVariation":269,"imagePosition":270,"image":2427,"imageFit":1832,"imageStyle":279,"imageTextColor":10,"headingLevel":280,"blockName":28,"buttons":2435,"blockType":282,"imageText":28,"title":169,"content":2436},{"id":1806,"alt":1807,"landscape":2428,"portrait":28,"folder":60,"thumbnailUrl":1817,"updatedAt":1831,"createdAt":1831},{"id":570,"updatedAt":1809,"createdAt":1810,"url":1811,"thumbnailURL":28,"filename":1812,"mimeType":139,"filesize":1813,"width":1814,"height":1669,"focalX":33,"focalY":33,"sizes":2429},{"thumbnail":2430,"sm":2431,"md":2432,"lg":2433,"og":2434},{"url":1817,"width":37,"height":38,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1818,"filename":1819},{"url":1821,"width":43,"height":1822,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1823,"filename":1824},{"url":1826,"width":1814,"height":1669,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1827,"filename":1828},{"url":1826,"width":1814,"height":1669,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1827,"filename":1828},{"url":28,"width":28,"height":28,"mimeType":28,"filesize":28,"filename":28},[],{"root":2437},{"type":168,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2438,"direction":28},[2439],{"type":173,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2440,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[2441],{"mode":176,"text":1766,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},{"id":1841,"colorVariation":757,"blockName":28,"columns":2443,"blockType":340,"titleStart":2452,"titleEnd":1766},[2444],{"id":1844,"content":2445},{"root":2446},{"type":168,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2447,"direction":28},[2448],{"type":173,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2449,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[2450],{"mode":176,"text":2451,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"Two portfolios were created, one composed of the companies of the first quintile and the other of the fifth quintile. Figure 2 represents the performance difference between these two baskets. The dark-blue area reflects an outperformance, mainly from the 2020s to date, of HALO companies relative to the least capital-intensive companies. Over the start of 2026 to the end of March, the HALO basket shows a relative performance of +4.7% and +2.6% versus the q5 basket and the SPI, respectively. ","Outperformance of tangible assets",{"id":1854,"layout":268,"colorVariation":461,"imagePosition":270,"image":2454,"imageFit":1832,"imageStyle":279,"imageTextColor":10,"headingLevel":280,"blockName":28,"buttons":2462,"blockType":282,"imageText":28,"title":169,"content":2463},{"id":1856,"alt":1857,"landscape":2455,"portrait":28,"folder":60,"thumbnailUrl":1868,"updatedAt":1882,"createdAt":1883},{"id":571,"updatedAt":1859,"createdAt":1860,"url":1861,"thumbnailURL":28,"filename":1862,"mimeType":139,"filesize":1863,"width":1864,"height":1865,"focalX":33,"focalY":33,"sizes":2456},{"thumbnail":2457,"sm":2458,"md":2459,"lg":2460,"og":2461},{"url":1868,"width":37,"height":38,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1869,"filename":1870},{"url":1872,"width":43,"height":1873,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1874,"filename":1875},{"url":1877,"width":1864,"height":1865,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1878,"filename":1879},{"url":1877,"width":1864,"height":1865,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1878,"filename":1879},{"url":28,"width":28,"height":28,"mimeType":28,"filesize":28,"filename":28},[],{"root":2464},{"type":168,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2465,"direction":28},[2466],{"type":173,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2467,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[2468],{"mode":176,"text":2469,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"The 2010s were marked by a relative absence of constraints on physical capital, combined with moderate inflation. A low cost of capital linked to low interest rates allowed investors to project themselves over a long-term horizon, favouring the holding of long-duration assets. This preference contributed to an outflow of capital away from tangible assets towards intangible or \"asset-light\" financial assets. This is reflected in figure 2 by an underperformance of capital-intensive companies between 2010 and 2019.",{"id":1893,"colorVariation":239,"blockName":28,"columns":2471,"blockType":340,"titleStart":2480,"titleEnd":1766},[2472],{"id":1896,"content":2473},{"root":2474},{"type":168,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2475,"direction":28},[2476],{"type":173,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2477,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[2478],{"mode":176,"text":2479,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"This relationship reversed with the post-Covid inflation shock and its effect, exacerbated by the energy crises. Several factors are at play. Demand that runs up against physical capacity constraints, with an economy unable to supply basic goods, coupled with an increased need for capex to support production capacity in a context of re-regionalisation. The sharp rise in interest rates (10-year German Bund) from 2020, in figure 3, reflects this. This regime change is associated with a rebound of so-called value companies, which share similarities with HALO stocks. They are generally more heavily endowed with physical assets, generate cash flows over a shorter term and are less affected by high interest rates. "," Rotation towards value companies",{"id":1906,"layout":268,"colorVariation":902,"imagePosition":934,"image":2482,"imageFit":1832,"imageStyle":279,"imageTextColor":10,"headingLevel":280,"blockName":28,"buttons":2490,"blockType":282,"imageText":28,"title":169,"content":2491},{"id":1908,"alt":1909,"landscape":2483,"portrait":28,"folder":60,"thumbnailUrl":1920,"updatedAt":1934,"createdAt":1935},{"id":593,"updatedAt":1911,"createdAt":1912,"url":1913,"thumbnailURL":28,"filename":1914,"mimeType":139,"filesize":1915,"width":1916,"height":1917,"focalX":33,"focalY":33,"sizes":2484},{"thumbnail":2485,"sm":2486,"md":2487,"lg":2488,"og":2489},{"url":1920,"width":37,"height":38,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1921,"filename":1922},{"url":1924,"width":43,"height":1925,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1926,"filename":1927},{"url":1929,"width":1916,"height":1917,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1930,"filename":1931},{"url":1929,"width":1916,"height":1917,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1930,"filename":1931},{"url":28,"width":28,"height":28,"mimeType":28,"filesize":28,"filename":28},[],{"root":2492},{"type":168,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2493,"direction":28},[2494],{"type":173,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2495,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[2496],{"mode":176,"text":2497,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"The emergence of AI is not cyclical, but structural. It puts pressure on informational or analytical business models that can be replicated, which promised perpetual recurring revenues. Today the terminal value of these growth models is being called into question. The current paradigm favours disciplined capital allocators, cash-flow generation and the holding of assets whose value creation is controllable.",{"id":1945,"colorVariation":345,"blockName":28,"columns":2499,"blockType":340,"titleStart":2508,"titleEnd":1766},[2500],{"id":1948,"content":2501},{"root":2502},{"type":168,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2503,"direction":28},[2504],{"type":173,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2505,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[2506],{"mode":176,"text":2507,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"Our analysis identifies these levers. They may be network-integrated assets, subject to strong regulation and endowed with portfolios of concessions, such as energy suppliers or telecoms. Ownership of a physical production or distribution network, characteristic of materials and consumer-staples companies, is a differentiator, as is the holding of patents that protect the development of molecules in healthcare and materials. Endowed with a heritage of brands and capitalising on a customer relationship, discretionary and staples consumer players do well. It should be noted that a business model can be sustainable and \"asset-light\". The barrier and the mission-critical dimension matter more than the heaviness of the assets. This is the case of Galenica, which controls a physical distribution network, Temenos, which develops core infrastructure software embedded in a regulatory framework, or Sika, which holds a network, physical production and patents, or again ABB, which supplies physical energy and automation capacity.","Business models to favour",{"id":1964,"colorVariation":902,"blockName":28,"columns":2510,"blockType":340,"titleStart":2525,"titleEnd":1766},[2511],{"id":1967,"content":2512},{"root":2513},{"type":168,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2514,"direction":28},[2515,2519,2521],{"type":173,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2516,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[2517],{"mode":176,"text":2518,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"By devaluing energy and production capacity and concentrating wealth in intangibles, the market has increased the vulnerability of asset portfolios. Since HALO models are present in numerous sectors, selectivity with a view to the durability of the business model is decisive. In this respect, active management, unlike passive management, allows selective participation in the vast deployment of infrastructure and the capitalisation on the dispersion generated by AI.",{"type":173,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2520,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[],{"type":173,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2522,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[2523],{"mode":176,"text":2524,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"(1) Swiss Performance Index (excl. finance and real estate)","HALO companies well positioned",{"id":1985,"colorVariation":269,"blockName":28,"columns":2527,"blockType":340,"titleStart":169,"titleEnd":169},[2528],{"id":1988,"content":2529},{"root":2530},{"type":168,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2531,"direction":28},[2532],{"type":173,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2533,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":4},[2534,2535],{"mode":176,"text":1995,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":4,"version":4},{"mode":176,"text":2536,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4}," is a fund manager, member of the Swiss equities conviction management team at BCGE Asset Management. Previously, he was an analyst and co-manager of a Swiss equities fund at Landolt & Cie (currently ODDO BHF Suisse). He completed an Executive Program at HEC Paris, holds a Master in Finance from Warwick Business School and a Bachelor from the University of Fribourg (Magna cum laude) and is a CFA charterholder.",{"id":1073,"alt":1999,"landscape":2538,"portrait":28,"folder":1706,"thumbnailUrl":2010,"updatedAt":2025,"createdAt":2026},{"id":2001,"updatedAt":2002,"createdAt":2003,"url":2004,"thumbnailURL":28,"filename":2005,"mimeType":30,"filesize":2006,"width":2007,"height":2007,"focalX":33,"focalY":33,"sizes":2539},{"thumbnail":2540,"sm":2541,"md":2542,"lg":2543,"og":2544},{"url":2010,"width":37,"height":38,"mimeType":30,"filesize":2011,"filename":2012},{"url":2014,"width":43,"height":43,"mimeType":30,"filesize":2015,"filename":2016},{"url":2018,"width":2007,"height":2007,"mimeType":30,"filesize":2006,"filename":2019},{"url":2018,"width":2007,"height":2007,"mimeType":30,"filesize":2006,"filename":2019},{"url":2022,"width":56,"height":57,"mimeType":30,"filesize":2023,"filename":2024},"A column by 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strutturano.",[],{"id":485,"layout":2599,"previewImage":2794,"title":1742,"excerpt":2802,"publishedDate":2028,"tags":2803,"slug":2032,"updatedAt":2033,"createdAt":2034},[2600,2636,2646,2657,2677,2693,2704,2721,2732,2749,2766,2783],{"id":1645,"colorVariation":239,"backgroundImage":2601,"foregroundImage":2616,"blockName":28,"blockType":256,"eyebrow":2624,"title":1742,"content":2625},{"id":1647,"alt":1648,"landscape":2602,"portrait":2609,"folder":1706,"thumbnailUrl":1659,"updatedAt":1707,"createdAt":1708},{"id":1650,"updatedAt":1651,"createdAt":1652,"url":1653,"thumbnailURL":28,"filename":1654,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1655,"width":75,"height":1656,"focalX":33,"focalY":33,"sizes":2603},{"thumbnail":2604,"sm":2605,"md":2606,"lg":2607,"og":2608},{"url":1659,"width":37,"height":38,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1660,"filename":1661},{"url":1663,"width":43,"height":1664,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1665,"filename":1666},{"url":1668,"width":48,"height":1669,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1670,"filename":1671},{"url":1673,"width":75,"height":1656,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1655,"filename":1674},{"url":1676,"width":56,"height":57,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1677,"filename":1678},{"id":1680,"updatedAt":1681,"createdAt":1682,"url":1683,"thumbnailURL":28,"filename":1684,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1685,"width":1686,"height":1687,"focalX":33,"focalY":33,"sizes":2610},{"thumbnail":2611,"sm":2612,"md":2613,"lg":2614,"og":2615},{"url":1690,"width":37,"height":38,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1691,"filename":1692},{"url":1694,"width":43,"height":1695,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1696,"filename":1697},{"url":1699,"width":1686,"height":1687,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1685,"filename":1700},{"url":1699,"width":1686,"height":1687,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1685,"filename":1700},{"url":1703,"width":56,"height":57,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1704,"filename":1705},{"id":1710,"alt":1711,"landscape":2617,"portrait":28,"folder":1706,"thumbnailUrl":1721,"updatedAt":1739,"createdAt":1740},{"id":1713,"updatedAt":1714,"createdAt":1715,"url":1716,"thumbnailURL":28,"filename":1717,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1718,"width":75,"height":1656,"focalX":33,"focalY":33,"sizes":2618},{"thumbnail":2619,"sm":2620,"md":2621,"lg":2622,"og":2623},{"url":1721,"width":37,"height":38,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1722,"filename":1723},{"url":1725,"width":43,"height":1664,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1726,"filename":1727},{"url":1729,"width":48,"height":1669,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1730,"filename":1731},{"url":1733,"width":75,"height":1656,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1718,"filename":1734},{"url":1736,"width":56,"height":57,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1737,"filename":1738},"29 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2026",{"id":1755,"colorVariation":269,"blockName":28,"columns":2637,"blockType":340,"titleStart":1766,"titleEnd":1766},[2638],{"id":1758,"content":2639},{"root":2640},{"type":168,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2641,"direction":28},[2642],{"type":173,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2643,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[2644],{"mode":176,"text":2645,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"Fino a poco tempo fa, il mercato valorizzava alcune energie come attivi in declino e la tecnologia come un attivo in crescita perpetua. Eppure il contesto è cambiato e le due ipotesi sono simultaneamente messe alla prova, con risultati dagli effetti senza precedenti.",{"id":1768,"colorVariation":902,"blockName":28,"columns":2647,"blockType":340,"titleStart":2656,"titleEnd":1766},[2648],{"id":1771,"content":2649},{"root":2650},{"type":168,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2651,"direction":28},[2652],{"type":173,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2653,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[2654],{"mode":176,"text":2655,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"Innanzitutto, le tensioni geopolitiche attuali mettono un premio sulle risorse energetiche, mentre l'innovazione accelera più rapidamente delle capacità, ponendo un vincolo fisico supplementare alla crescita. Trainato dalla deglobalizzazione e dall'elettrificazione, il fabbisogno d'investimento (capex) è colossale. Inoltre, l'intelligenza artificiale (IA) veniva finora percepita come uno shock di produttività uniforme, di cui beneficiava ogni società in modo indifferenziato. Il lancio di «Claude» per il settore giuridico ha fatto vacillare in borsa i leader consolidati e illustra questo nuovo paradigma. In questo contesto, dunque, individuare gli attori che dispongono di attivi tangibili che proteggono dal rischio di erosione dei vantaggi competitivi dovuto all'adozione dell'IA è cruciale.","Cambiamento di paradigma",{"id":1781,"colorVariation":239,"blockName":28,"columns":2658,"blockType":340,"titleStart":2675,"titleEnd":2676},[2659,2667],{"id":1784,"content":2660},{"root":2661},{"type":168,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2662,"direction":28},[2663],{"type":173,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2664,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[2665],{"mode":176,"text":2666,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"L'acronimo HALO fa riferimento a quelle società che detengono una base sostanziale di attivi tangibili (heavy assets) e la cui obsolescenza (dovuta all'IA) è minore (low obsolescence). Questo studio analizza il mercato delle azioni svizzere sotto questa angolazione. Le società dello SPI 1) sono classificate secondo criteri di intensità di capitale che misurano l'investimento necessario al mantenimento delle capacità di produzione o la quota dei flussi di cassa assorbita dal reinvestimento. Ciascuna società è classificata in cinque gruppi, o quintili. Il quintile 1 (q1) corrisponde al 20% delle società più intensive in capitale (HALO). Al contrario, il quintile 5 (q5) corrisponde al 20% delle società meno intensive in capitale. ",{"id":1793,"content":2668},{"root":2669},{"type":168,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2670,"direction":28},[2671],{"type":173,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2672,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[2673],{"mode":176,"text":2674,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"Le società fortemente dipendenti da attivi produttivi tangibili (q1 e q2) operano nelle telecomunicazioni, nell'infrastruttura e sono sovrarappresentate nei materiali e nel consumo discrezionale (figura 1). I settori della salute e del consumo di base (staples) si fondano anch'essi su una solida base di attivi tangibili. Al contrario, la comunicazione (ex telecomunicazioni) e le tecnologie dell'informazione comprendono una maggioranza di società «asset-light» (q4 e q5), seguite dall'industria, il settore più ampio in Svizzera e per di più eterogeneo.","L'effetto ","HALO",{"id":1804,"layout":1127,"colorVariation":269,"imagePosition":270,"image":2678,"imageFit":1832,"imageStyle":279,"imageTextColor":10,"headingLevel":280,"blockName":28,"buttons":2686,"blockType":282,"imageText":28,"title":1766,"content":2687},{"id":1806,"alt":1807,"landscape":2679,"portrait":28,"folder":60,"thumbnailUrl":1817,"updatedAt":1831,"createdAt":1831},{"id":570,"updatedAt":1809,"createdAt":1810,"url":1811,"thumbnailURL":28,"filename":1812,"mimeType":139,"filesize":1813,"width":1814,"height":1669,"focalX":33,"focalY":33,"sizes":2680},{"thumbnail":2681,"sm":2682,"md":2683,"lg":2684,"og":2685},{"url":1817,"width":37,"height":38,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1818,"filename":1819},{"url":1821,"width":43,"height":1822,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1823,"filename":1824},{"url":1826,"width":1814,"height":1669,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1827,"filename":1828},{"url":1826,"width":1814,"height":1669,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1827,"filename":1828},{"url":28,"width":28,"height":28,"mimeType":28,"filesize":28,"filename":28},[],{"root":2688},{"type":168,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2689,"direction":28},[2690],{"type":173,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2691,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[2692],{"mode":176,"text":1766,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},{"id":1841,"colorVariation":757,"blockName":28,"columns":2694,"blockType":340,"titleStart":2703,"titleEnd":1766},[2695],{"id":1844,"content":2696},{"root":2697},{"type":168,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2698,"direction":28},[2699],{"type":173,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2700,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[2701],{"mode":176,"text":2702,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"Sono stati creati due portafogli, uno composto dalle società del primo quintile e l'altro del quinto quintile. La figura 2 rappresenta la differenza di performance tra questi due panieri. La superficie blu scuro riflette una sovraperformance, principalmente dagli anni 2020 a oggi, delle società HALO rispetto alle società meno intensive in capitale. In questo inizio d'anno 2026 fino a fine marzo, il paniere HALO registra una performance relativa del +4,7% e del +2,6% rispetto al paniere q5 e allo SPI, rispettivamente. ","Sovraperformance degli attivi tangibili",{"id":1854,"layout":268,"colorVariation":461,"imagePosition":270,"image":2705,"imageFit":1832,"imageStyle":279,"imageTextColor":10,"headingLevel":280,"blockName":28,"buttons":2713,"blockType":282,"imageText":28,"title":1766,"content":2714},{"id":1856,"alt":1857,"landscape":2706,"portrait":28,"folder":60,"thumbnailUrl":1868,"updatedAt":1882,"createdAt":1883},{"id":571,"updatedAt":1859,"createdAt":1860,"url":1861,"thumbnailURL":28,"filename":1862,"mimeType":139,"filesize":1863,"width":1864,"height":1865,"focalX":33,"focalY":33,"sizes":2707},{"thumbnail":2708,"sm":2709,"md":2710,"lg":2711,"og":2712},{"url":1868,"width":37,"height":38,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1869,"filename":1870},{"url":1872,"width":43,"height":1873,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1874,"filename":1875},{"url":1877,"width":1864,"height":1865,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1878,"filename":1879},{"url":1877,"width":1864,"height":1865,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1878,"filename":1879},{"url":28,"width":28,"height":28,"mimeType":28,"filesize":28,"filename":28},[],{"root":2715},{"type":168,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2716,"direction":28},[2717],{"type":173,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2718,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[2719],{"mode":176,"text":2720,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"Gli anni 2010 sono stati caratterizzati da una relativa assenza di vincoli sul capitale fisico, unita a un'inflazione moderata. Un basso costo del capitale legato a tassi d'interesse bassi permetteva agli investitori di proiettarsi su un orizzonte di lungo termine, favorendo la detenzione di attivi a lunga duration. Questa preferenza ha contribuito a un deflusso di capitali dagli attivi tangibili verso attivi finanziari immateriali o «asset-light». Ciò si riflette nella figura 2 in una sottoperformance delle società a forte intensità di capitale tra il 2010 e il 2019.",{"id":1893,"colorVariation":239,"blockName":28,"columns":2722,"blockType":340,"titleStart":2731,"titleEnd":1766},[2723],{"id":1896,"content":2724},{"root":2725},{"type":168,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2726,"direction":28},[2727],{"type":173,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2728,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[2729],{"mode":176,"text":2730,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"Questa relazione si è invertita con lo shock inflazionistico post-covid e il suo effetto, esacerbato dalle crisi energetiche. Diversi fattori sono in gioco. Una domanda che si scontra con i vincoli di capacità fisica, con un'economia incapace di fornire i beni di base, unita a un accresciuto fabbisogno di capex per sostenere le capacità di produzione in un contesto di ri-regionalizzazione. Il forte rialzo dei tassi d'interesse (Bund tedesco a 10 anni) dal 2020 nella figura 3 ne è il riflesso. Questo cambiamento di regime è associato a un rimbalzo delle cosiddette società di valore, che condividono somiglianze con i titoli HALO. Esse sono generalmente più fortemente dotate di attivi fisici, generano flussi di cassa a più breve termine e sono meno impattate da tassi d'interesse elevati.","Rotazione verso le società di valore",{"id":1906,"layout":268,"colorVariation":902,"imagePosition":934,"image":2733,"imageFit":1832,"imageStyle":279,"imageTextColor":10,"headingLevel":280,"blockName":28,"buttons":2741,"blockType":282,"imageText":28,"title":1766,"content":2742},{"id":1908,"alt":1909,"landscape":2734,"portrait":28,"folder":60,"thumbnailUrl":1920,"updatedAt":1934,"createdAt":1935},{"id":593,"updatedAt":1911,"createdAt":1912,"url":1913,"thumbnailURL":28,"filename":1914,"mimeType":139,"filesize":1915,"width":1916,"height":1917,"focalX":33,"focalY":33,"sizes":2735},{"thumbnail":2736,"sm":2737,"md":2738,"lg":2739,"og":2740},{"url":1920,"width":37,"height":38,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1921,"filename":1922},{"url":1924,"width":43,"height":1925,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1926,"filename":1927},{"url":1929,"width":1916,"height":1917,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1930,"filename":1931},{"url":1929,"width":1916,"height":1917,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1930,"filename":1931},{"url":28,"width":28,"height":28,"mimeType":28,"filesize":28,"filename":28},[],{"root":2743},{"type":168,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2744,"direction":28},[2745],{"type":173,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2746,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[2747],{"mode":176,"text":2748,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"L'emergere dell'IA non è ciclico, ma strutturale. Mette sotto pressione i modelli di business informativi o analitici replicabili, che promettevano ricavi ricorrenti perpetui. Oggi il valore terminale di questi modelli di crescita è rimesso in discussione. Il paradigma attuale favorisce gli allocatori di capitale disciplinati, la generazione di cash-flow e la detenzione di attivi la cui creazione di valore è controllabile.",{"id":1945,"colorVariation":345,"blockName":28,"columns":2750,"blockType":340,"titleStart":2765,"titleEnd":1766},[2751],{"id":1948,"content":2752},{"root":2753},{"type":168,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2754,"direction":28},[2755,2759,2761],{"type":173,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2756,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[2757],{"mode":176,"text":2758,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"La nostra analisi individua queste leve. Può trattarsi di attivi integrati in rete, soggetti a una forte regolamentazione e dotati di portafogli di concessioni, come i fornitori di energia o le telecomunicazioni. Il possesso di una rete fisica di produzione o di distribuzione, caratteristica delle società dei materiali e del consumo di base, è un elemento differenziante, così come la detenzione di brevetti che proteggono lo sviluppo di molecole nella salute e nei materiali. Dotati di un patrimonio di marchi e capitalizzando su una relazione con la clientela, gli attori del consumo discrezionale e di base traggono il loro vantaggio. ",{"type":173,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2760,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[],{"type":173,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2762,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[2763],{"mode":176,"text":2764,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"Va rilevato che un modello di business può essere durevole e «asset-light». La barriera e la missione critica sono più importanti del peso degli attivi. È il caso di Galenica, che controlla una rete di distribuzione fisica, di Temenos, che sviluppa software core d'infrastruttura integrati in un quadro regolamentare, o di Sika, che detiene una rete, una produzione fisica e brevetti, oppure di ABB, che fornisce capacità fisiche energetiche e di automazione.","Modelli di business da favorire",{"id":1964,"colorVariation":902,"blockName":28,"columns":2767,"blockType":340,"titleStart":2782,"titleEnd":1766},[2768],{"id":1967,"content":2769},{"root":2770},{"type":168,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2771,"direction":28},[2772,2776,2778],{"type":173,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2773,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[2774],{"mode":176,"text":2775,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"Svalutando l'energia e le capacità di produzione e concentrando la ricchezza negli intangibili, il mercato ha accresciuto la vulnerabilità dei portafogli di attivi. Poiché i modelli HALO sono presenti in numerosi settori, la selettività in un'ottica di durabilità del modello di business è decisiva. A questo riguardo, la gestione attiva, al contrario della gestione passiva, permette di partecipare selettivamente al vasto dispiegamento di infrastruttura e di capitalizzare sulla dispersione generata dall'IA.",{"type":173,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2777,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[],{"type":173,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2779,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[2780],{"mode":176,"text":2781,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"1) Swiss Performance Index (escl. finanza e immobiliare)","Le società HALO ben posizionate",{"id":1985,"colorVariation":269,"blockName":28,"columns":2784,"blockType":340,"titleStart":1766,"titleEnd":1766},[2785],{"id":1988,"content":2786},{"root":2787},{"type":168,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2788,"direction":28},[2789],{"type":173,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2790,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":4},[2791,2792],{"mode":176,"text":1995,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":4,"version":4},{"mode":176,"text":2793,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4}," è gestore di fondi, membro del team di gestione di convinzione sulle azioni svizzere presso BCGE Asset Management. In precedenza, è stato analista e co-gestore di un fondo in azioni svizzere presso Landolt & Cie (attualmente ODDO BHF Suisse). Ha completato un Executive Program alla HEC Paris, è titolare di un Master in Finance della Warwick Business School e di un Bachelor dell'Università di Friburgo (Magna cum laude) ed è detentore del CFA.",{"id":1073,"alt":1999,"landscape":2795,"portrait":28,"folder":1706,"thumbnailUrl":2010,"updatedAt":2025,"createdAt":2026},{"id":2001,"updatedAt":2002,"createdAt":2003,"url":2004,"thumbnailURL":28,"filename":2005,"mimeType":30,"filesize":2006,"width":2007,"height":2007,"focalX":33,"focalY":33,"sizes":2796},{"thumbnail":2797,"sm":2798,"md":2799,"lg":2800,"og":2801},{"url":2010,"width":37,"height":38,"mimeType":30,"filesize":2011,"filename":2012},{"url":2014,"width":43,"height":43,"mimeType":30,"filesize":2015,"filename":2016},{"url":2018,"width":2007,"height":2007,"mimeType":30,"filesize":2006,"filename":2019},{"url":2018,"width":2007,"height":2007,"mimeType":30,"filesize":2006,"filename":2019},{"url":2022,"width":56,"height":57,"mimeType":30,"filesize":2023,"filename":2024},"Una rubrica di Raphaël Membrez -\nPubblicata su Allnews - Aprile 2026",{"id":4,"name":1706,"slug":2030,"updatedAt":2031,"createdAt":2031},1790840685780]