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célèbre adage de Benjamin Graham « In the short run, the market is a voting machine; in the long run, it is a weighing machine » résume avec justesse l’un des grands paradoxes des marchés. À court terme, ceux-ci réagissent comme un baromètre émotionnel : ils votent, sanctionnent ou parfois applaudissent et extrapolent. Mais à long terme, ils finissent par évaluer les entreprises pour ce qu’elles sont réellement : leur capacité à innover, croître, défendre leurs marges et à générer durablement des retours sur capital.",{"type":173,"format":652,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":1742,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[1743],{"mode":176,"text":1744,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"  ",{"type":173,"format":652,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":1746,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[1747],{"mode":176,"text":1748,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"Cette distinction entre le bruit de court terme et la substance de long terme n’a probablement jamais été aussi pertinente qu’aujourd’hui. Élections, guerres, tensions commerciales ou nouveaux tarifs douaniers : l’environnement de marché semble en permanence traversé par des secousses exogènes. Pourtant, lorsqu’on prend du recul, l’histoire montre que les marchés actions, notamment le marché américain, ont souvent absorbé ces chocs sans remettre en cause leur trajectoire de fond. Si l’on prend un horizon de long terme de 40 ans, on observe que les actions américaines (S&P 500) ont délivré une performance d’environ 11% annualisé en USD, ceci malgré plusieurs années de fortes baisses (bulle internet 2000-2002 : -38%, crise financière 2008 : -37%, pic inflationniste de 2022 : -18%). Autrement dit, pour l’investisseur de long terme, beaucoup de ces chocs finissent par s’estomper et la patience est finalement récompensée.",{"id":1750,"colorVariation":241,"blockName":28,"columns":1751,"blockType":340,"titleStart":1761},"6a3d42c7fc3c16786ef2f342",[1752],{"id":1753,"content":1754},"6a3d42d4fc3c16786ef2f343",{"root":1755},{"type":168,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":1756,"direction":28},[1757],{"type":173,"format":652,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":1758,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[1759],{"mode":176,"text":1760,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"Cela ne signifie évidemment pas que les chutes de marchés sont sans conséquences pour les investisseurs. À court terme, des événements tels que les conflits armés peuvent provoquer d’importantes baisses du marché, en particulier lorsqu’ils touchent à l’énergie. La guerre actuelle autour du détroit d’Ormuz en est le parfait exemple. Cet étroit passage concentre environ 25% du commerce mondial de pétrole et près de 20% du gaz naturel liquéfié transporté par mer, selon l’agence internationale de l’énergie. Dans cette perspective, le conflit en Iran illustre parfaitement ce mécanisme : le marché réagit vite et violemment face à l’incertitude immédiate, mais il réévalue ensuite les conséquences réelles sur la croissance et les profits futurs des entreprises. Si l’histoire est un bon guide pour le futur, nous pouvons alors mettre en évidence qu’en moyenne, le marché américain est en hausse de 8%, un an après le début d’un conflit armé . Une source d’explication est l’intensité pétrolière dans le PIB qui a baissé de près de 60% depuis les premiers chocs pétroliers des années 1970 selon la Banque mondiale. Ce n’est donc pas tant l’événement lui-même qui détermine la trajectoire de long terme des marchés, que sa capacité ou non à modifier durablement les fondamentaux économiques.","Le bruit des conflits, la résilience des marchés",{"id":1763,"colorVariation":887,"blockName":28,"columns":1764,"blockType":340,"titleStart":1774,"titleEnd":1775},"6a3d42dffc3c16786ef2f344",[1765],{"id":1766,"content":1767},"6a3d42fefc3c16786ef2f345",{"root":1768},{"type":168,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":1769,"direction":28},[1770],{"type":173,"format":652,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":1771,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[1772],{"mode":176,"text":1773,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"C’est particulièrement vrai sur les thématiques les plus commentées du moment. Les sociétés liées à l’intelligence artificielle et notamment aux « data centers » concentrent aujourd’hui une part importante de la volatilité boursière, car elles sont au croisement des plus fortes attentes de croissance, des valorisations les plus exigeantes et des plus grands débats sur la soutenabilité des dépenses d’investissement.","À court terme, la volatilité se concentre là","où les récits sont les plus puissants",{"id":1777,"colorVariation":345,"blockName":28,"columns":1778,"blockType":340,"titleStart":1797,"titleEnd":1798},"6a3d4306fc3c16786ef2f346",[1779],{"id":1780,"content":1781},"6a3d4311fc3c16786ef2f347",{"root":1782},{"type":168,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":1783,"direction":28},[1784,1788,1791,1795],{"type":173,"format":652,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":1785,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[1786],{"mode":176,"text":1787,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"Une fois le bruit de court terme remis à sa juste place, la question centrale redevient celle de la qualité des entreprises. Car dans la durée, ce que le marché finit par évaluer, ce ne sont ni les manchettes des journaux ni les émotions, mais la capacité d’une société à créer de la valeur. Les entreprises qui s’imposent sur la durée sont souvent celles qui combinent plusieurs attributs : innovation continue, croissance structurelle, marges élevées, retour sur investissement attractif et barrières à l’entrée solides.",{"type":173,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":1789,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[1790],{"mode":176,"text":862,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},{"type":173,"format":652,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":1792,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[1793],{"mode":176,"text":1794,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"C’est précisément là que certaines sociétés suisses se distinguent. Dans un marché souvent perçu comme défensif, la Suisse abrite en réalité de nombreuses entreprises capables de créer de la valeur sur le long terme.  ",{"type":173,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":1796,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[],"Ce que le marché finit par évaluer :","croissance, marges, rendement du capital",{"id":1800,"colorVariation":460,"blockName":28,"columns":1801,"blockType":340,"titleStart":1811,"titleEnd":1812},"6a3d4326fc3c16786ef2f348",[1802],{"id":1803,"content":1804},"6a3d432efc3c16786ef2f349",{"root":1805},{"type":168,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":1806,"direction":28},[1807],{"type":173,"format":652,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":1808,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[1809],{"mode":176,"text":1810,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"Belimo est probablement l’un des exemples les plus parlants de création de valeur suisse patiente et méthodique. En 2025, le groupe a réalisé CHF 1.12 milliards de ventes et un bénéfice de CHF 182 millions (en croissance de 8.5% et 12.4% par an respectivement depuis 10 ans). L’entreprise continue de bénéficier de grandes tendances structurelles comme l’efficacité énergétique, la rénovation des bâtiments et la montée en puissance des centres de données. Dès 2024, Belimo soulignait l’accélération de la demande liée aux data centers et la solidité de sa stratégie de croissance fondée sur l’urbanisation, le climat et la digitalisation. Belimo démontre qu’un spécialiste, leader sur des composants critiques, peut bâtir des barrières à l’entrée fortes comme : expertise technique, qualité, fiabilité, innovation incrémentale et proximité client. À court terme, le titre peut être sensible aux niveaux de valorisations, aux taux d’intérêts ou encore aux mouvements de marché. À long terme, le marché évaluera la capacité de l’entreprise à transformer ces mégatendances en croissance rentable de long terme. Depuis fin juillet 2025, le titre affiche une performance boursière de -32% au 31.03.2026 comparé au marché suisse qui est à +8% (Swiss Performance Index ou SPI). À plus long terme : +505% sur 10 ans (6e meilleure performance sur 200 sociétés du SPI qui fait +114%) ou +2’172% sur 20 ans (SPI +189%), soit la meilleure performance de tout le marché suisse.","Belimo : un spécialiste de premier plan","au cœur des grandes tendances structurelles",{"id":1814,"colorVariation":751,"blockName":28,"columns":1815,"blockType":340,"titleStart":1842,"titleEnd":1843},"6a3d433dfc3c16786ef2f34a",[1816],{"id":1817,"content":1818},"6a3d434dfc3c16786ef2f34b",{"root":1819},{"type":168,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":1820,"direction":28},[1821,1825,1828,1832,1835,1838],{"type":173,"format":652,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":1822,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[1823],{"mode":176,"text":1824,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"Au fond, la citation de Benjamin Graham garde tout son sens parce qu’elle rappelle une vérité simple : le temps est souvent le meilleur révélateur de la valeur. Les marchés votent au rythme des émotions, des peurs et des récits dominants de court terme. Ils évaluent ensuite les faits. Les guerres, les élections ou les tensions commerciales continueront de provoquer de forts moments de volatilité. La thématique de l’IA continuera également de concentrer de fortes rotations à court terme. Mais pour l’investisseur patient, la vraie question reste inchangée : quelles sont les entreprises capables d’émerger du bruit avec d’avantage de parts de marché, de meilleures marges, plus de croissance et des barrières à l’entrée renforcées ? ",{"type":173,"format":652,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":1826,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[1827],{"mode":176,"text":862,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},{"type":173,"format":652,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":1829,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[1830],{"mode":176,"text":1831,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"C’est précisément dans cette lecture de long terme qu’une société comme Belimo prend tout son sens. À court terme, le marché peut voter de manière parfois irrationnelle. À long terme, il finit presque toujours par évaluer la qualité.",{"type":173,"format":652,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":1833,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[1834],{"mode":176,"text":862,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},{"type":173,"format":652,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":1836,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[1837],{"mode":176,"text":862,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},{"type":173,"format":652,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":1839,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":4},[1840],{"mode":176,"text":1841,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":4,"version":4},"Anton Berthot","Le long terme","comme antidote au bruit",{"id":1845,"alt":1846,"landscape":1847,"portrait":28,"folder":1654,"thumbnailUrl":1855,"updatedAt":1867,"createdAt":1867},122,"BCGE Berthot Anton - 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avril 2026","HALO Schweiz",{"root":1976},{"type":168,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":1977,"direction":28},[1978,1982],{"type":173,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":1979,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[1980],{"mode":176,"text":1981,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"Chronique de Raphaël Membrez ",{"type":173,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":1983,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[1984],{"mode":176,"text":1985,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"Parue dans Allnews - Avril 2026",{"id":1987,"colorVariation":241,"blockName":28,"columns":1988,"blockType":340},"6a3d4a778ac2749f80a52271",[1989],{"id":1990,"content":1991},"6a3d4a888ac2749f80a52272",{"root":1992},{"type":168,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":1993,"direction":28},[1994],{"type":173,"format":652,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":1995,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[1996],{"mode":176,"text":1997,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"Jusqu’à récemment, le marché valorisait certaines énergies comme des actifs en déclin et la technologie comme un actif en croissance perpétuelle. Or, le contexte changé et les deux hypothèses sont simultanément mises au banc de test avec des résultats aux effets sans précédent.",{"id":1999,"colorVariation":887,"blockName":28,"columns":2000,"blockType":340,"titleStart":2010},"6a3d4a968ac2749f80a52273",[2001],{"id":2002,"content":2003},"6a3d4a9c8ac2749f80a52274",{"root":2004},{"type":168,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2005,"direction":28},[2006],{"type":173,"format":652,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2007,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[2008],{"mode":176,"text":2009,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"Tout d’abord, les tensions géopolitiques actuelles mettent une prime sur les ressources énergétiques, alors que l’innovation accélère plus rapidement que les capacités, posant une contrainte physique supplémentaire sur la croissance. Tiré par la déglobalisation et l’électrification, le besoin en investissement (capex) est colossal. Par ailleurs, on percevait jusqu’à présent l’intelligence artificiel (IA) comme un choc de productivité uniforme, bénéficiant à chaque société de façon indifférenciée. Le lancement de « Claude » pour le secteur juridique a fait vaciller en bourse les leaders établis et illustre ce nouveau paradigme. Or, dans ce contexte, identifier les acteurs qui disposent d’actifs tangibles qui protègent du risque d’érosion des avantages compétitifs dû à l’adoption de l’IA, est crucial.","Changement de paradigme",{"id":2012,"colorVariation":271,"blockName":28,"columns":2013,"blockType":340,"titleStart":2032,"titleEnd":1279},"6a3d4aab8ac2749f80a52275",[2014,2023],{"id":2015,"content":2016},"6a3d4abd8ac2749f80a52276",{"root":2017},{"type":168,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2018,"direction":28},[2019],{"type":173,"format":652,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2020,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[2021],{"mode":176,"text":2022,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"L’acronyme HALO fait référence à ces sociétés qui détiennent une base substantielle d’actifs tangibles (heavy assets) et dont l’obsolescence (due à l’IA) est moindre (low obsolescence). Cette étude analyse le marché des actions suisses sous cet angle. Les sociétés du SPI 1) sont classées selon des critères d’intensité capitalistique qui mesurent l’investissement nécessaire au maintien des capacités de productions ou la part des flux de trésorerie absorbée par le réinvestissement. Chacune des sociétés est classé en cinq groupes, ou quintiles. Le quintile 1 (q1) correspond aux 20% des sociétés les plus intensives en capital (HALO). A l’inverse, le quintile 5 (q5) correspond aux 20% des sociétés les moins intensives en capital.",{"id":2024,"content":2025},"6a3d4ac38ac2749f80a52277",{"root":2026},{"type":168,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2027,"direction":28},[2028],{"type":173,"format":652,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2029,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[2030],{"mode":176,"text":2031,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"Les sociétés fortement dépendantes d’actifs productifs tangibles (q1 et q2) opèrent dans les télécoms, l’infrastructure et sont surreprésentées dans les matériaux et la consommation discrétionnaire (figure 1). Les secteurs de la santé et de la consommation de base (staples) reposent eux-aussi sur une forte base d’actifs tangibles. A l’inverse, la communication (ex-télécoms) et les technologies de l’information comportent une majorité de sociétés « asset-light » (q4 et q5), suivi par l’industrie, le plus large secteur en Suisse de surcroît hétérogène","L’effet de HALO",{"id":2034,"layout":1103,"colorVariation":271,"imagePosition":272,"image":2035,"imageFit":1732,"imageStyle":281,"imageTextColor":10,"headingLevel":282,"blockName":28,"buttons":2063,"blockType":284,"content":2064},"6a3d4acd8ac2749f80a52278",{"id":2036,"alt":2037,"landscape":2038,"portrait":28,"folder":60,"thumbnailUrl":2048,"updatedAt":2062,"createdAt":2062},65,"bcge_graph3",{"id":594,"updatedAt":2039,"createdAt":2040,"url":2041,"thumbnailURL":28,"filename":2042,"mimeType":139,"filesize":2043,"width":2044,"height":2045,"focalX":33,"focalY":33,"sizes":2046},"2026-06-25T15:38:04.957Z","2026-06-25T15:38:04.465Z","https:\u002F\u002Fassets.synchrony.ch\u002FBCGE_graph_3.png","BCGE_graph_3.png",83623,1009,433,{"thumbnail":2047,"sm":2051,"md":2056,"lg":2060,"og":2061},{"url":2048,"width":37,"height":38,"mimeType":30,"filesize":2049,"filename":2050},"https:\u002F\u002Fassets.synchrony.ch\u002FBCGE_graph_3-300x200.webp",6444,"BCGE_graph_3-300x200.webp",{"url":2052,"width":43,"height":2053,"mimeType":30,"filesize":2054,"filename":2055},"https:\u002F\u002Fassets.synchrony.ch\u002FBCGE_graph_3-640x275.webp",275,12578,"BCGE_graph_3-640x275.webp",{"url":2057,"width":2044,"height":2045,"mimeType":30,"filesize":2058,"filename":2059},"https:\u002F\u002Fassets.synchrony.ch\u002FBCGE_graph_3-1009x433.webp",21566,"BCGE_graph_3-1009x433.webp",{"url":2057,"width":2044,"height":2045,"mimeType":30,"filesize":2058,"filename":2059},{"url":28,"width":28,"height":28,"mimeType":28,"filesize":28,"filename":28},"2026-06-25T15:38:07.057Z",[],{"root":2065},{"type":168,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2066,"direction":28},[2067],{"type":173,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2068,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[2069],{"mode":176,"text":1279,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},{"id":2071,"colorVariation":751,"blockName":28,"columns":2072,"blockType":340,"titleStart":2082,"titleEnd":1279},"6a3d4b728ac2749f80a52279",[2073],{"id":2074,"content":2075},"6a3d4b8b8ac2749f80a5227a",{"root":2076},{"type":168,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2077,"direction":28},[2078],{"type":173,"format":652,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2079,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[2080],{"mode":176,"text":2081,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"Deux portefeuilles ont été créé, l’un composé des sociétés du premier quintile et l’autre du cinquième quintile. La figure 2 représente la différence de performance entre ces deux paniers. La surface bleu foncé reflète une surperformance, principalement depuis les années 2020 à ce jour, des sociétés HALO vis-à-vis des sociétés les moins intensives en capital. Sur ce début d’année 2026 à fin mars, le panier HALO affiche une performance relative de +4.7% et de +2.6% vis-à-vis du panier q5 et du SPI, respectivement.  ","Surperformance des actifs tangibles ",{"id":2084,"layout":270,"colorVariation":460,"imagePosition":272,"image":2085,"imageFit":1732,"imageStyle":281,"imageTextColor":10,"headingLevel":282,"blockName":28,"buttons":2114,"blockType":284,"content":2115},"6a3d4b988ac2749f80a5227b",{"id":2086,"alt":2087,"landscape":2088,"portrait":28,"folder":60,"thumbnailUrl":2098,"updatedAt":2112,"createdAt":2113},66,"bcge_graph2",{"id":595,"updatedAt":2089,"createdAt":2090,"url":2091,"thumbnailURL":28,"filename":2092,"mimeType":139,"filesize":2093,"width":2094,"height":2095,"focalX":33,"focalY":33,"sizes":2096},"2026-06-25T15:39:26.360Z","2026-06-25T15:39:26.154Z","https:\u002F\u002Fassets.synchrony.ch\u002FBCGE_graph_2.png","BCGE_graph_2.png",77379,964,476,{"thumbnail":2097,"sm":2101,"md":2106,"lg":2110,"og":2111},{"url":2098,"width":37,"height":38,"mimeType":30,"filesize":2099,"filename":2100},"https:\u002F\u002Fassets.synchrony.ch\u002FBCGE_graph_2-300x200.webp",4798,"BCGE_graph_2-300x200.webp",{"url":2102,"width":43,"height":2103,"mimeType":30,"filesize":2104,"filename":2105},"https:\u002F\u002Fassets.synchrony.ch\u002FBCGE_graph_2-640x316.webp",316,11746,"BCGE_graph_2-640x316.webp",{"url":2107,"width":2094,"height":2095,"mimeType":30,"filesize":2108,"filename":2109},"https:\u002F\u002Fassets.synchrony.ch\u002FBCGE_graph_2-964x476.webp",20342,"BCGE_graph_2-964x476.webp",{"url":2107,"width":2094,"height":2095,"mimeType":30,"filesize":2108,"filename":2109},{"url":28,"width":28,"height":28,"mimeType":28,"filesize":28,"filename":28},"2026-06-29T07:33:55.471Z","2026-06-25T15:39:27.089Z",[],{"root":2116},{"type":168,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2117,"direction":28},[2118],{"type":173,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2119,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[2120],{"mode":176,"text":2121,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"Les années 2010 ont été marquées par une relative absence de contraintes sur le capital physique, assorti d’une inflation modérée. Un faible coût du capital lié à des taux d’intérêt bas permettait aux investisseurs de se projeter sur un horizon de long-terme, favorisant la détention d’actifs à duration longue. Cette préférence a contribué à une sortie de capitaux hors des actifs tangibles vers des actifs financiers intangibles ou « asset-light ». Cela se reflète sur la figure 2 par une sous-performance des sociétés à forte intensité capitalistique entre 2010 et 2019.",{"id":2123,"colorVariation":241,"blockName":28,"columns":2124,"blockType":340,"titleStart":2134,"titleEnd":2135},"6a3d4bbb8ac2749f80a5227c",[2125],{"id":2126,"content":2127},"6a3d4bbe8ac2749f80a5227d",{"root":2128},{"type":168,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2129,"direction":28},[2130],{"type":173,"format":652,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2131,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[2132],{"mode":176,"text":2133,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"Cette relation s’est inversée avec le choc inflationniste post-covid et son effet exacerbé par les crises énergétiques. Plusieurs facteurs sont en jeu. Une demande qui se heurte aux contraintes de capacité physique, avec une économie incapable de fournir les biens de bases, assortit d’un besoin accru en capex pour soutenir les capacités de production dans un contexte de ré-régionalisation. La forte hausse des taux d’intérêt (Bund allemand à 10 ans) dès 2020 sur la figure 3 en est le reflet. Ce changement de régime est associé à un rebond des sociétés dites de valeur qui partagent des similitudes avec les titres HALO. Elles sont généralement plus fortement dotées en actifs physiques, génèrent des flux de cash à plus court terme et sont moins impactées par des taux d’intérêt élevés."," Rotation vers les sociétés de valeur ","  ",{"id":2137,"layout":270,"colorVariation":887,"imagePosition":919,"image":2138,"imageFit":1732,"imageStyle":281,"imageTextColor":10,"headingLevel":282,"blockName":28,"buttons":2167,"blockType":284,"content":2168},"6a3d4bfb8ac2749f80a5227e",{"id":2139,"alt":2140,"landscape":2141,"portrait":28,"folder":60,"thumbnailUrl":2151,"updatedAt":2165,"createdAt":2166},67,"bcge_graph4",{"id":617,"updatedAt":2142,"createdAt":2143,"url":2144,"thumbnailURL":28,"filename":2145,"mimeType":139,"filesize":2146,"width":2147,"height":2148,"focalX":33,"focalY":33,"sizes":2149},"2026-06-25T15:41:05.661Z","2026-06-25T15:41:05.058Z","https:\u002F\u002Fassets.synchrony.ch\u002FBCGE_graph_4.png","BCGE_graph_4.png",125438,970,449,{"thumbnail":2150,"sm":2154,"md":2159,"lg":2163,"og":2164},{"url":2151,"width":37,"height":38,"mimeType":30,"filesize":2152,"filename":2153},"https:\u002F\u002Fassets.synchrony.ch\u002FBCGE_graph_4-300x200.webp",7460,"BCGE_graph_4-300x200.webp",{"url":2155,"width":43,"height":2156,"mimeType":30,"filesize":2157,"filename":2158},"https:\u002F\u002Fassets.synchrony.ch\u002FBCGE_graph_4-640x296.webp",296,18978,"BCGE_graph_4-640x296.webp",{"url":2160,"width":2147,"height":2148,"mimeType":30,"filesize":2161,"filename":2162},"https:\u002F\u002Fassets.synchrony.ch\u002FBCGE_graph_4-970x449.webp",32018,"BCGE_graph_4-970x449.webp",{"url":2160,"width":2147,"height":2148,"mimeType":30,"filesize":2161,"filename":2162},{"url":28,"width":28,"height":28,"mimeType":28,"filesize":28,"filename":28},"2026-06-29T07:33:53.265Z","2026-06-25T15:41:06.453Z",[],{"root":2169},{"type":168,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2170,"direction":28},[2171],{"type":173,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2172,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[2173],{"mode":176,"text":2174,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"L’émergence de l’IA n’est pas cyclique, mais structurelle. Elle met sous pression les modèles d’affaires informationnels ou analytiques pouvant être répliqués, qui promettaient des revenus récurrents perpétuels. Aujourd’hui la valeur terminale de ces modèles de croissance est remise en cause. Le paradigme actuel favorise les allocateurs de capital disciplinés, la génération de cash-flow et la détention d’actifs dont la création de valeur est contrôlable.",{"id":2176,"colorVariation":345,"blockName":28,"columns":2177,"blockType":340,"titleStart":2194,"titleEnd":1279},"6a3d4c728ac2749f80a52280",[2178],{"id":2179,"content":2180},"6a3d4c808ac2749f80a52281",{"root":2181},{"type":168,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2182,"direction":28},[2183,2187,2190],{"type":173,"format":652,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2184,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[2185],{"mode":176,"text":2186,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"Notre analyse identifie ces leviers. Il peut s’agir d’actifs intégrés en réseau, soumis à une forte régulation et dotés de portefeuille de concessions comme les fournisseurs d’énergie ou les télécoms. La possession d’un réseau physique de production ou de distribution, caractéristique des sociétés des matériaux et de la consommation de base, est un différentiateur, tout comme la détention de patentes qui protègent le développement de molécules dans la santé et les matériaux. Dotées d’un héritage de marques et capitalisant sur une relation clientèle, les acteurs de la consommation discrétionnaire et de base tirent leur épingle du jeu.",{"type":173,"format":652,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2188,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[2189],{"mode":176,"text":862,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},{"type":173,"format":652,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2191,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[2192],{"mode":176,"text":2193,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"Il faut relever qu’un modèle d’affaire peut être pérenne et « asset-light ». La barrière et la mission critique est plus importante que la lourdeur des actifs. C’est le cas de Galenica qui contrôle un réseau de distribution physique, Temenos, qui développe des logiciels cœurs d’infrastructure engrenés dans un cadre régulatoire, ou Sika, qui détient un réseau, une production physique et des patentes, ou encore ABB, qui fournit des capacités physiques énergétiques et d’automatisation.","Modèles d’affaires à favoriser ",{"id":2196,"colorVariation":887,"blockName":28,"columns":2197,"blockType":340,"titleStart":2216,"titleEnd":1279},"6a3d4c8f8ac2749f80a52282",[2198],{"id":2199,"content":2200},"6a3d4c978ac2749f80a52283",{"root":2201},{"type":168,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2202,"direction":28},[2203,2207,2210,2214],{"type":173,"format":652,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2204,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[2205],{"mode":176,"text":2206,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"En dévalorisant l’énergie, les capacités de productions et en concentrant la richesse dans les intangibles, le marché a accru la vulnérabilité des portefeuilles d’actifs. Les modèles HALO étant présent dans de nombreux secteurs, la sélectivité dans une optique de durabilité du modèle d’affaire est décisive. A cet égard, la gestion active, au contraire de la gestion passive, permets de participer sélectivement au vaste déploiement d’infrastructure et de capitaliser sur la dispersion engendrée par l’IA.",{"type":173,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2208,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[2209],{"mode":176,"text":862,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},{"type":173,"format":652,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2211,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[2212],{"mode":176,"text":2213,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"1) Swiss Performance Index (excl. finance et immobilier)",{"type":173,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2215,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[],"Les sociétés HALO bien positionnées",{"id":2218,"colorVariation":271,"blockName":28,"columns":2219,"blockType":340},"6a42af764ec8d2260a7e3bc9",[2220],{"id":2221,"content":2222},"6a42af794ec8d2260a7e3bca",{"root":2223},{"type":168,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2224,"direction":28},[2225],{"type":173,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2226,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":4},[2227,2229],{"mode":176,"text":2228,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":4,"version":4},"Raphaël Membrez ",{"mode":176,"text":2230,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"est gérant de fonds, membre de l’équipe de gestion de convictions actions suisses chez BCGE Asset Management. Auparavant, il a été analyste et co-gérant d’un fonds en actions suisses chez Landolt & Cie (actuellement ODDO BHF Suisse). Il a complété un Executive Program à HEC Paris, titulaire d’un Master en Finance de Warwick Business School et d’un Bachelor de l’Université de Fribourg (Magna cum laude) et détenteur du CFA.",{"id":1045,"alt":2232,"landscape":2233,"portrait":28,"folder":1654,"thumbnailUrl":2241,"updatedAt":2253,"createdAt":2254},"Membrez_Raphael-publications",{"id":2234,"updatedAt":2235,"createdAt":2236,"url":2237,"thumbnailURL":28,"filename":2238,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1922,"width":1634,"height":1635,"focalX":33,"focalY":33,"sizes":2239},233,"2026-07-09T15:46:08.058Z","2026-07-09T15:46:07.378Z","https:\u002F\u002Fassets.synchrony.ch\u002FBCGE_Membrez_Raphael_2026 (list)-1.webp","BCGE_Membrez_Raphael_2026 (list)-1.webp",{"thumbnail":2240,"sm":2243,"md":2246,"lg":2249,"og":2250},{"url":2241,"width":37,"height":38,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1926,"filename":2242},"https:\u002F\u002Fassets.synchrony.ch\u002FBCGE_Membrez_Raphael_2026 (list)-1-300x200.webp","BCGE_Membrez_Raphael_2026 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!",{"root":2358},{"type":168,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2359,"direction":28},[2360,2364],{"type":173,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2361,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[2362],{"mode":176,"text":2363,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"Chronique de Laurent Clauzet ",{"type":173,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2365,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[2366],{"mode":176,"text":2367,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"Parue dans Allnews - Février 2026",{"id":2369,"colorVariation":345,"blockName":28,"columns":2370,"blockType":340},"6a3d4dfa8ac2749f80a52285",[2371],{"id":2372,"content":2373},"6a3d4dfe8ac2749f80a52286",{"root":2374},{"type":168,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2375,"direction":28},[2376,2380,2383],{"type":173,"format":652,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2377,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[2378],{"mode":176,"text":2379,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"L’immobilier occupe une place structurelle dans l’allocation d’actifs des investisseurs institutionnels suisses. Sur le long terme, cette classe d’actifs se caractérise par une volatilité inférieure à celle des actions, une décorrélation partielle avec les autres classes d’actifs et une génération de revenus relativement stable. Ces propriétés expliquent son rôle central dans les portefeuilles de prévoyance, les caisses de pension suisses pouvant allouer jusqu’à 25% de leurs actifs à l’immobilier.",{"type":173,"format":652,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2381,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[2382],{"mode":176,"text":862,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},{"type":173,"format":652,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2384,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[2385],{"mode":176,"text":2386,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"L’univers de l’immobilier indirect coté en Suisse se compose de deux segments distincts : les actions immobilières et les fonds immobiliers cotés. Les actions immobilières, regroupées au sein de l’indice REAL , sont des titres de participation classiques. Elles sont généralement intégrées dans les portefeuilles selon un cadre Moyenne–Variance classique, l’investisseur étant conscient de la nécessité de diversifier le risque spécifique afin d’optimiser le rendement ajusté du risque. À l’inverse, un comportement sensiblement différent est observé sur le segment des fonds immobiliers cotés. Bien qu’ils soient négociés en continu sur la bourse suisse, avec un carnet d’ordres identique à celui des actions, ces véhicules sont encore fréquemment perçus comme des instruments quasi obligataires. Cette perception tient en partie à une possible confusion entre la valeur nette d’inventaire (NAV), généralement publiée à une fréquence annuelle, et le prix de marché, formé en continu intra-journalier. Ces fonds étant structurellement semi-ouverts et, dans la pratique, fermés la majeure partie du temps, leur prix est déterminé par l’offre et la demande et s’écarte de manière structurelle de la NAV, avec des primes ou décotes moyennes de l’ordre de 20 à 25% selon les phases de cycle. Cette perception conduit parfois à une concentration excessive sur un nombre limité de fonds, voire régulièrement sur un seul véhicule, augmentant très sensiblement le risque spécifique pour l’investisseur.",{"id":2388,"layout":270,"colorVariation":241,"imagePosition":919,"image":2389,"imageFit":1732,"imageStyle":281,"imageTextColor":10,"headingLevel":282,"blockName":28,"buttons":2417,"blockType":284,"content":2418},"6a3d4e458ac2749f80a52288",{"id":2390,"alt":2391,"landscape":2392,"portrait":28,"folder":60,"thumbnailUrl":2402,"updatedAt":2416,"createdAt":2416},68,"bcge_six_graph",{"id":644,"updatedAt":2393,"createdAt":2394,"url":2395,"thumbnailURL":28,"filename":2396,"mimeType":139,"filesize":2397,"width":2398,"height":2399,"focalX":33,"focalY":33,"sizes":2400},"2026-06-25T15:50:41.859Z","2026-06-25T15:50:41.660Z","https:\u002F\u002Fassets.synchrony.ch\u002FBCGE_SIX_graph.png","BCGE_SIX_graph.png",50445,977,554,{"thumbnail":2401,"sm":2405,"md":2410,"lg":2414,"og":2415},{"url":2402,"width":37,"height":38,"mimeType":30,"filesize":2403,"filename":2404},"https:\u002F\u002Fassets.synchrony.ch\u002FBCGE_SIX_graph-300x200.webp",8934,"BCGE_SIX_graph-300x200.webp",{"url":2406,"width":43,"height":2407,"mimeType":30,"filesize":2408,"filename":2409},"https:\u002F\u002Fassets.synchrony.ch\u002FBCGE_SIX_graph-640x363.webp",363,25994,"BCGE_SIX_graph-640x363.webp",{"url":2411,"width":2398,"height":2399,"mimeType":30,"filesize":2412,"filename":2413},"https:\u002F\u002Fassets.synchrony.ch\u002FBCGE_SIX_graph-977x554.webp",39722,"BCGE_SIX_graph-977x554.webp",{"url":2411,"width":2398,"height":2399,"mimeType":30,"filesize":2412,"filename":2413},{"url":28,"width":28,"height":28,"mimeType":28,"filesize":28,"filename":28},"2026-06-25T15:50:52.977Z",[],{"root":2419},{"type":168,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2420,"direction":28},[2421,2425],{"type":173,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2422,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[2423],{"mode":176,"text":2424,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"Chaque fonds immobilier coté détient un portefeuille d’actifs réels, par définition unique, souvent concentré géographiquement et sectoriellement. La performance dépend dès lors fortement de facteurs spécifiques : qualité et localisation du parc immobilier, structure de financement, politique de distribution, ainsi que décisions du gestionnaire. D’un point de vue quantitatif, cette concentration se traduit par une volatilité idiosyncratique significative, susceptible de réduire le rendement ajusté au risque, en particulier lors de phases de tension sur les marchés financiers ou de remontée des taux d’intérêt. Le tableau ci-dessous présente les dix plus grandes capitalisations boursières de fonds immobiliers cotés suisses, accompagnées de leur performance totale, de leur volatilité récente et de leur ratio de Sharpe. Les écarts observés entre les fonds sont marqués, tant en termes de rendement que de risque, ce qui confirme empiriquement l’hétérogénéité des profils rendement\u002Frisque au sein de cette classe d’actifs.",{"type":173,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2426,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[],{"id":2428,"colorVariation":345,"blockName":28,"columns":2429,"blockType":340},"6a3d4e638ac2749f80a52289",[2430],{"id":2431,"content":2432},"6a3d4e6b8ac2749f80a5228a",{"root":2433},{"type":168,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2434,"direction":28},[2435,2439,2442],{"type":173,"format":652,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2436,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[2437],{"mode":176,"text":2438,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"Deux stratégies agrégées sont également présentées : une approche active de convictions combinant 25-30 titres immobiliers (fonds cotés et actions immobilières), ainsi qu’une approche passive reposant sur l’indice SWIIT , qui regroupe l’ensemble des fonds immobiliers cotés suisses. Dans les deux cas, la diversification permet une réduction de l’écart-type (volatilité) du portefeuille et une amélioration du ratio de Sharpe, conformément aux prédictions du cadre Moyenne–Variance. Enfin, une diversification encore plus large peut être obtenue en combinant le segment des fonds immobiliers cotés (SWIIT) avec celui des actions immobilières (REAL). L’intégration conjointe de ces deux segments permet d’exploiter des sources de risque partiellement distinctes et d’améliorer la frontière efficiente de l’allocation immobilière.",{"type":173,"format":652,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2440,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[2441],{"mode":176,"text":862,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},{"type":173,"format":652,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2443,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[2444],{"mode":176,"text":2445,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"En conclusion, si l’immobilier indirect suisse constitue une composante essentielle de l’allocation d’actifs, une exposition concentrée sur un seul fonds immobilier coté accentue fortement le risque spécifique non diversifié. Les résultats empiriques plaident en faveur d’une approche diversifiée, d’autant plus active, afin de maximiser le rendement ajusté du risque et de capter durablement les propriétés de stabilisation associées à cette classe d’actifs.",{"id":2447,"colorVariation":271,"blockName":28,"columns":2448,"blockType":340},"6a42ae634ec8d2260a7e3bc5",[2449],{"id":2450,"content":2451},"6a42ae664ec8d2260a7e3bc6",{"root":2452},{"type":168,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2453,"direction":28},[2454],{"type":173,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2455,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":4},[2456,2458],{"mode":176,"text":2457,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":4,"version":4},"Laurent Clauzet",{"mode":176,"text":2459,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4}," a rejoint la BCGE en 2021. Il est membre de l’équipe de gestion de convictions actions suisses et responsable de stratégies sur les actions à haut dividende ainsi que sur l’immobilier indirect suisse. Il commence sa carrière en 2014 auprès du multi-family office Fitzroy Investment Advisors, en tant qu’analyste en sélection de fonds actions. Puis entre 2017 et 2021, il occupe plusieurs postes chez Solvalor fund management, une direction de fonds et gestionnaire de plusieurs fonds immobiliers. Il est titulaire d’un Master in Management de l’EMLyon Business School avec une majeure en Finance et du titre CFA®.",{"id":69,"alt":2461,"landscape":2462,"portrait":28,"folder":1654,"thumbnailUrl":2470,"updatedAt":2482,"createdAt":2483},"Clauzet_Laurent-publications",{"id":2463,"updatedAt":2464,"createdAt":2465,"url":2466,"thumbnailURL":28,"filename":2467,"mimeType":30,"filesize":2304,"width":1634,"height":1635,"focalX":33,"focalY":33,"sizes":2468},234,"2026-07-09T15:47:01.697Z","2026-07-09T15:47:01.366Z","https:\u002F\u002Fassets.synchrony.ch\u002FClauzet Laurent Internet 2026 (list).webp","Clauzet Laurent Internet 2026 (list).webp",{"thumbnail":2469,"sm":2472,"md":2475,"lg":2478,"og":2479},{"url":2470,"width":37,"height":38,"mimeType":30,"filesize":2308,"filename":2471},"https:\u002F\u002Fassets.synchrony.ch\u002FClauzet Laurent Internet 2026 (list)-300x200.webp","Clauzet Laurent Internet 2026 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Swans",{"root":2588},{"type":168,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2589,"direction":28},[2590],{"type":173,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2591,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[2592,2594,2595],{"mode":176,"text":2593,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"Chronique de Thierry Vessereau ",{"type":296,"version":4},{"mode":176,"text":2596,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"Parue dans Allnews - Juillet 2025",{"id":2598,"colorVariation":751,"blockName":28,"columns":2599,"blockType":340},"6a3e766579839c6d1a2b12a4",[2600],{"id":2601,"content":2602},"6a3e767679839c6d1a2b12a5",{"root":2603},{"type":168,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2604,"direction":28},[2605,2609,2612],{"type":173,"format":652,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2606,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[2607],{"mode":176,"text":2608,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"Les cygnes noirs (Black Swans) ont été définis par Nassim Taleb en 2007, comme des événements qui se caractérisent par leur rareté et leur imprévisibilité, la gravité de leurs conséquences, et la tendance à les rationaliser a posteriori.",{"type":173,"format":652,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2610,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[2611],{"mode":176,"text":862,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},{"type":173,"format":652,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2613,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[2614],{"mode":176,"text":2615,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"En finance, ces événements ont la caractéristique de pouvoir être exogènes : événements naturels, pandémie, guerre, mais aussi de pouvoir être générés par les marchés financiers eux-mêmes sous la forme de bulles spéculatives. Les marchés économiques et financiers ont ainsi connu plusieurs événements mondiaux de ce type, par exemple la bulle immobilière de 2008, souvent classifiés dans la catégorie des cygnes noirs. L’imprévisibilité de ces bulles repose sur le fait de déterminer si elles existent réellement ou non, de mesurer leur évolution et leur capacité à exploser, et surtout, leur impact potentiel sur les marchés et l’économie.",{"id":2617,"colorVariation":460,"blockName":28,"columns":2618,"blockType":340,"titleStart":2647,"titleEnd":2648},"6a3e769579839c6d1a2b12a6",[2619],{"id":2620,"content":2621},"6a3e76a579839c6d1a2b12a7",{"root":2622},{"type":168,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2623,"direction":28},[2624],{"type":173,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2625,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[2626,2628,2630,2632,2634,2636,2638,2640,2642,2643,2645],{"mode":176,"text":2627,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"L’irruption de ChatGPT-4 en 2023 a constitué un point tournant dans la compréhension des possibilités de l’IA et dans l’accélération des outils utilisés jusqu’alors. En finance des marchés, le développement rapide de nouveaux dispositifs a permis de généraliser et d’étendre des algorithmes qui étaient, pour certains, déjà avancés (trading haute fréquence, ",{"mode":176,"text":2629,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":499,"version":4},"robot advisory",{"mode":176,"text":2631,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},", ",{"mode":176,"text":2633,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":499,"version":4},"web scraping",{"mode":176,"text":2635,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"), en multipliant également le nombre d’acteurs actifs dans le domaine. Alors que l’accent a été porté dans un premier temps sur les traitements massifs de documents, la synthétisation et la réécriture par les ",{"mode":176,"text":2637,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":499,"version":4},"Large Langage Models",{"mode":176,"text":2639,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4}," (LLM), désormais l’intelligence est de plus en plus utilisée dans l’investissement même, en appliquant en particulier les principes du ",{"mode":176,"text":2641,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":499,"version":4},"machine",{"mode":176,"text":862,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},{"mode":176,"text":2644,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":499,"version":4},"learning",{"mode":176,"text":2646,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},".","Intelligence","artificielle",{"id":2650,"colorVariation":345,"blockName":28,"columns":2651,"blockType":340,"titleStart":2676,"titleEnd":1279},"6a3e76b979839c6d1a2b12a8",[2652],{"id":2653,"content":2654},"6a3e76c679839c6d1a2b12a9",{"root":2655},{"type":168,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2656,"direction":28},[2657,2665,2668],{"type":173,"format":652,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2658,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[2659,2661,2663],{"mode":176,"text":2660,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"Les algorithmes de ",{"mode":176,"text":2662,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":499,"version":4},"machine learning",{"mode":176,"text":2664,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4}," sont conçus pour apprendre sur la base de vastes volumes de données financières et pour identifier les tendances et formuler des prédictions ou des décisions sans intervention humaine ou avec une intervention humaine limitée. Cependant, aussi impressionnante soit-elle, la capacité de l’IA à prédire ou à atténuer l’impact des événements particuliers n’est pas assurée. Ceci est lié à la fois au caractère par définition imprévisible du cygne noir, mais également aux caractéristiques de l’apprentissage.",{"type":173,"format":652,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2666,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[2667],{"mode":176,"text":862,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},{"type":173,"format":652,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2669,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[2670,2672,2674],{"mode":176,"text":2671,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"En effet, l’objectif général de l’apprentissage est de minimiser l’entropie pour que la distribution prédite soit la plus proche possible de la distribution observée, ayant ainsi tendance à traiter à part ou ignorer les ",{"mode":176,"text":2673,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":499,"version":4},"outliers",{"mode":176,"text":2675,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},", qu’ils soient aberrants ou difficiles à expliquer. L’apprentissage est aussi tributaire de l’accès et de la longueur des données historiques, de leur disponibilité selon les domaines, mais également de l’hypothèse que les données passées, massivement employées, permettent de déterminer des tendances ayant un certain pouvoir prédictif. Enfin, une part importante de la mise au point est d’éviter le « surapprentissage », c’est-à-dire de fonctionner en favorisant les données d’apprentissage au détriment de la capacité de prédiction. Ceci conduit naturellement à écarter ou minimiser les événements particuliers qui ne rentrent pas dans la moyenne.","Machine Learning et cygnes noirs",{"id":2678,"colorVariation":887,"blockName":28,"columns":2679,"blockType":340,"titleStart":2696,"titleEnd":1279},"6a3e76ee79839c6d1a2b12aa",[2680],{"id":2681,"content":2682},"6a3e774079839c6d1a2b12ab",{"root":2683},{"type":168,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2684,"direction":28},[2685,2689,2692],{"type":173,"format":652,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2686,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[2687],{"mode":176,"text":2688,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"Les caractéristiques de l’apprentissage, qu’il soit supervisé ou non supervisé, posent la question de la génération d’une bulle particulière et de l’autoproduction d’un cygne noir d’un nouveau genre par la multiplication d’acteurs automatisés dont la diversité serait factice. Selon les principes établis par Shannon, le nombre et la multiplication d’acteurs ne veut pas dire qu’il y a plus d’information, ni que celles-ci soient différentiées. Ceci est illustré par le paradoxe du jeu inventé par Shannon en 1948, qui créé un prédicteur universel discret profitant des biais de l’information fournie (en l’occurrence un expérimentateur qui génère des nombres qui ne sont en réalité pas aléatoires). L’accès facilité à des algorithmes avancés provoque une multiplication des acteurs, mais ceux-ci risquent de traiter les informations de manière similaire. Il est probable que ces acteurs, en faisant des hypothèses semblables et en utilisant essentiellement les mêmes données et les mêmes algorithmes, obtiennent des résultats similaires et renforcent les mêmes prédictions en limitant les possibilités d’arbitrage. Un parallèle, peut être fait avec le trading haute fréquence qui permettait de dégager une surperformance significative tant que le nombre d’acteurs était limité.",{"type":173,"format":652,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2690,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[2691],{"mode":176,"text":862,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},{"type":173,"format":652,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2693,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[2694],{"mode":176,"text":2695,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"On peut alors se poser la question de savoir si l’utilisation de modèles d’apprentissage permet d’obtenir une meilleure efficience des marchés, en multipliant les acteurs, ou au contraire augmente le risque d’inefficience en reproduisant des acteurs clonés artificiellement. Le paradoxe serait alors que la maturité de l’investissement par IA finisse par reproduire les biais reprochés aux investissements indiciels : concentration excessive, crainte de création de bulle, comportements grégaires. Cependant, elle ne supporte a priori pas les mêmes inconvénients majeurs qui sont associés à ces fonds indexés : manque de surperformance, manque de flexibilité et impossibilité de pouvoir profiter d’opportunités sur le marché.","Petits et gros cygnes",{"id":2698,"colorVariation":271,"blockName":28,"columns":2699,"blockType":340},"6a3e776879839c6d1a2b12ac",[2700],{"id":2701,"content":2702},"6a3e776e79839c6d1a2b12ad",{"root":2703},{"type":168,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2704,"direction":28},[2705],{"type":173,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2706,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":4},[2707,2709],{"mode":176,"text":2708,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":4,"version":4},"Thierry Vessereau",{"mode":176,"text":2710,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4}," a rejoint BCGE Asset Management en juillet 2019 en tant que gérant institutionnel sur les fonds passifs et actifs de la gamme Synchrony. Auparavant, il a travaillé de 2005 à 2019 à la banque Pictet & Cie comme chef de projet et de développement, puis comme spécialiste d’investissement du service Indexation de Pictet Asset Management. Thierry Vessereau est titulaire d’un master en sciences informatiques et Docteur en économie.",{"id":2712,"alt":2713,"landscape":2714,"portrait":28,"folder":1654,"thumbnailUrl":2722,"updatedAt":2734,"createdAt":2734},127,"BCGE_TVE-publications",{"id":2715,"updatedAt":2716,"createdAt":2717,"url":2718,"thumbnailURL":28,"filename":2719,"mimeType":30,"filesize":2534,"width":1634,"height":1635,"focalX":33,"focalY":33,"sizes":2720},235,"2026-07-09T15:50:13.459Z","2026-07-09T15:50:13.163Z","https:\u002F\u002Fassets.synchrony.ch\u002FBCGE_TVE (list).webp","BCGE_TVE (list).webp",{"thumbnail":2721,"sm":2724,"md":2727,"lg":2730,"og":2731},{"url":2722,"width":37,"height":38,"mimeType":30,"filesize":2538,"filename":2723},"https:\u002F\u002Fassets.synchrony.ch\u002FBCGE_TVE (list)-300x200.webp","BCGE_TVE (list)-300x200.webp",{"url":2725,"width":43,"height":1643,"mimeType":30,"filesize":2542,"filename":2726},"https:\u002F\u002Fassets.synchrony.ch\u002FBCGE_TVE (list)-640x729.webp","BCGE_TVE (list)-640x729.webp",{"url":2728,"width":1634,"height":1635,"mimeType":30,"filesize":2534,"filename":2729},"https:\u002F\u002Fassets.synchrony.ch\u002FBCGE_TVE (list)-935x1065.webp","BCGE_TVE (list)-935x1065.webp",{"url":2728,"width":1634,"height":1635,"mimeType":30,"filesize":2534,"filename":2729},{"url":2732,"width":56,"height":57,"mimeType":30,"filesize":2550,"filename":2733},"https:\u002F\u002Fassets.synchrony.ch\u002FBCGE_TVE (list)-1200x630.webp","BCGE_TVE (list)-1200x630.webp","2026-07-09T15:50:31.325Z","Chronique de Thierry Vessereau -\nParue dans Allnews - 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Elle a su capitaliser sur cette aura, notamment grâce à son horlogerie de précision, son excellence industrielle ainsi que par la qualité de son industrie pharmaceutique. La Suisse s’impose aujourd’hui comme un acteur discret mais influent dans le domaine de la technologie et notamment dans l’implémentation et l’utilisation de l’intelligence artificielle (IA).",{"type":173,"format":652,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2801,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[2802],{"mode":176,"text":862,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},{"type":173,"format":652,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2804,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[2805,2807,2809],{"mode":176,"text":2806,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"L’innovation fait partie de l’ADN de la Suisse et de ses sociétés qui allouent, méthodiquement, année après année, des sommes importantes en recherche et développement (R&D). En moyenne, près de CHF 25 milliards sont investis chaque année dont environ CHF 17 milliards de la part des entreprises privées, ce qui représente l’équivalent de plus de 3% du PIB(1). Si le pays n’est pas considéré comme une \"",{"mode":176,"text":2808,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":499,"version":4},"Silicon Valley",{"mode":176,"text":2810,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"\", plusieurs de ses entreprises sont des acteurs importants de l’innovation. ABB, VAT Group et Belimo illustrent parfaitement la façon dont l’IA se retrouve désormais au cœur des investissements en innovation des entreprises suisses, consolidant leur rôle dans la chaîne de valeur de cette technologie de rupture.",{"id":2812,"colorVariation":345,"blockName":28,"columns":2813,"blockType":340,"titleStart":2848},"6a3e861a74a2af8ce99c26ce",[2814],{"id":2815,"content":2816},"6a3e862674a2af8ce99c26cf",{"root":2817},{"type":168,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2818,"direction":28},[2819,2831,2834,2838,2841],{"type":173,"format":652,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2820,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[2821,2823,2825,2827,2829],{"mode":176,"text":2822,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"ABB, le géant industriel, innove depuis plus de 140 ans, devenant ainsi leader mondial de l’automatisation, des systèmes robotiques et de l’électrification. L’entreprise intègre l’IA dans ses solutions pour optimiser la maintenance prédictive, la gestion de l’énergie et l’autonomie des systèmes industriels. Sa plateforme ABB Ability en est le fer de lance : en associant IA et ",{"mode":176,"text":2824,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":499,"version":4},"cloud",{"mode":176,"text":2826,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},", elle permet d’analyser en temps réel des volumes massifs de données industrielles afin d’anticiper les pannes, réduire la consommation énergétique et améliorer l’efficacité opérationnelle. Autre exemple, les centres de données (",{"mode":176,"text":2828,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":499,"version":4},"data centers",{"mode":176,"text":2830,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"), indispensables à l’IA, représentent 15 % des nouvelles commandes de la division Electrification en 2024, soit environ CHF 2 milliards. L’IA devient ici un levier concret de productivité, de croissance et de rentabilité. Mais cette innovation demande évidemment d’importants investissements. ABB a augmenté depuis 2020 ses dépenses en R&D de 40%, celles-ci atteignant 4.5% des ventes ou CHF 1.2 milliard en 2024(2).",{"type":173,"format":652,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2832,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[2833],{"mode":176,"text":862,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},{"type":173,"format":652,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2835,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[2836],{"mode":176,"text":2837,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"VAT Group, maillon stratégique dans la fabrication de semi-conducteurs, est moins connue du grand public mais tout aussi essentielle. VAT Group est le leader mondial des vannes à vide utilisées dans la fabrication de semi-conducteurs. Ce domaine très technique, exige précision et pureté de l’environnement. L’IA est ici utilisée pour simuler et accélérer les cycles de développement de nouvelles solutions sous vide. Détenant 76 % de part de marché dans son segment, VAT Group est un acteur clé dans la chaîne de valeur des semi-conducteurs, eux-mêmes indispensables à l’IA. L’entreprise consacre une part significative de son chiffre d’affaires à la R&D (6% des ventes ou 12% des employés)(3), ce qui lui permet de rester à la pointe de l’innovation.",{"type":173,"format":652,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2839,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[2840],{"mode":176,"text":862,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},{"type":173,"format":652,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2842,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[2843,2845,2846],{"mode":176,"text":2844,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"Belimo, un acteur clé pour l’efficacité énergétique des ",{"mode":176,"text":2828,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":499,"version":4},{"mode":176,"text":2847,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},", est spécialiste des servomoteurs, vannes et capteurs pour la gestion des flux d’air et d’eau dans les bâtiments, Belimo incarne l’émergence des bâtiments intelligents. L’entreprise a intégré l’IA à ses capteurs connectés pour améliorer automatiquement le confort thermique et énergétique. Grâce à ses modèles prédictifs, Belimo permet une réduction significative de la consommation énergétique. 12% de son chiffre d’affaires provient désormais des centres de données, un segment stratégique avec l’explosion des besoins en refroidissement liés aux nouvelles puces IA. Belimo affiche une croissance annuelle moyenne de 10% de son chiffre d’affaires sur 20 ans et investit près de 8% de ses ventes en R&D, preuve d’une stratégie technologique robuste et durable(4).","Portrait d’un virage technologique helvétique en marche",{"id":2850,"colorVariation":887,"blockName":28,"columns":2851,"blockType":340,"titleStart":2877,"titleEnd":1279},"6a3e865274a2af8ce99c26d0",[2852],{"id":2853,"content":2854},"6a3e866074a2af8ce99c26d1",{"root":2855},{"type":168,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2856,"direction":28},[2857,2861,2864],{"type":173,"format":652,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2858,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[2859],{"mode":176,"text":2860,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"ABB, VAT Group et Belimo illustrent parfaitement un modèle d’innovation « à la Suisse » : pragmatique, industriel et tourné vers l’efficience et la performance. Ces entreprises ancrent ainsi l’IA dans des applications concrètes, qui transforment à la fois l’industrie, l’énergie, les bâtiments et l’économie numérique mondiale. L’implémentation de l’IA devient essentielle pour l’innovation, qui à son tour permet d’obtenir des réinvestissements en R&D de plus en plus productifs. La Suisse, fidèle à son héritage de précision, transforme progressivement ce capital historique en avantage compétitif de long terme.",{"type":173,"format":652,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2862,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[2863],{"mode":176,"text":862,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},{"type":173,"format":652,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2865,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[2866,2868,2869,2871,2872,2874,2875],{"mode":176,"text":2867,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"(1) https:\u002F\u002Fwww.aboutswitzerland.eda.admin.ch\u002Ffr\u002Frecherche-et-developpement  ",{"type":296,"version":4},{"mode":176,"text":2870,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"(2) https:\u002F\u002Fglobal.abb\u002Fgroup\u002Fen\u002Finvestors",{"type":296,"version":4},{"mode":176,"text":2873,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"(3) https:\u002F\u002Fwww.vatgroup.com\u002Finvestor-relations ",{"type":296,"version":4},{"mode":176,"text":2876,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"(4) https:\u002F\u002Fwww.belimo.com\u002Fch\u002Fen_GB\u002Fabout\u002Finvestor-relations ","Une IA au service de l’innovation suisse discrète, mais essentielle.",{"id":2879,"colorVariation":271,"blockName":28,"columns":2880,"blockType":340},"6a3e866674a2af8ce99c26d2",[2881],{"id":2882,"content":2883},"6a3e866e74a2af8ce99c26d3",{"root":2884},{"type":168,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2885,"direction":28},[2886],{"type":173,"format":652,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2887,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":4},[2888,2889],{"mode":176,"text":1841,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":4,"version":4},{"mode":176,"text":2890,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4}," est co-gérant de fonds de convictions sur les actions suisses chez BCGE. Auparavant, il a œuvré en tant que co-gérant de fonds sur les actions suisses, l’immobilier suisse et multi-assets chez RESCAD SA durant 8 ans. Il compte également quelques années en tant qu’analyste chez HSBC et JP Morgan. Il est titulaire d’un Master en Finance de l’Université de Neuchâtel, d’un Bachelor de HEC Lausanne et détenteur du CFA.",{"id":1845,"alt":1846,"landscape":2892,"portrait":28,"folder":1654,"thumbnailUrl":1855,"updatedAt":1867,"createdAt":1867},{"id":1848,"updatedAt":1849,"createdAt":1850,"url":1851,"thumbnailURL":28,"filename":1852,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1633,"width":1634,"height":1635,"focalX":33,"focalY":33,"sizes":2893},{"thumbnail":2894,"sm":2895,"md":2896,"lg":2897,"og":2898},{"url":1855,"width":37,"height":38,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1639,"filename":1856},{"url":1858,"width":43,"height":1643,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1644,"filename":1859},{"url":1861,"width":1634,"height":1635,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1633,"filename":1862},{"url":1861,"width":1634,"height":1635,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1633,"filename":1862},{"url":1865,"width":56,"height":57,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1652,"filename":1866},"La Suisse, discrète mais puissante terre d’innovation","Chronique d’Anton Berthot - \nParue dans Allnews - 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Ces chiffres, ce sont les tarifs imposés aux partenaires commerciaux des Etats-Unis, dépeint avec sévérité par le président en ce 2 avril. L’Union européenne, menacée d’un tarif de 20 pour cent « peut sembler gentille en apparence mais elle nous arnaque si souvent, c’est triste et pathétique » a-t-il alors déclaré.","Tous très durs envers nous ?",{"id":2967,"colorVariation":345,"blockName":28,"columns":2968,"blockType":340,"titleStart":1279,"titleEnd":2978},"6a43e6aaaa5d9812cabda073",[2969],{"id":2970,"content":2971},"6a43e6b0aa5d9812cabda074",{"root":2972},{"type":168,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2973,"direction":28},[2974],{"type":173,"format":652,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2975,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[2976],{"mode":176,"text":2977,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"Les accords de Bretton Woods de 1944, qui ont formalisé le rôle du dollar américain comme devise de réserve internationale, offrent une clé de lecture sur le séisme actuel. La demande structurelle pour le billet vert aurait conduit à son appréciation et a des asymétries dans les échanges commerciaux, pénalisant la compétitivité américaine. Selon Donald Trump, la perte de capacité industrielle aurait même affaibli la défense américaine. Tout cela justifie un état d’urgence, avec comme remède le déploiement de tarifs réciproques afin de rééquilibrer les échanges globaux.","Levier de négociation face à l’ascension du dollar",{"id":2980,"colorVariation":271,"blockName":28,"columns":2981,"blockType":340,"titleStart":3000,"titleEnd":3001},"6a43e6deaa5d9812cabda075",[2982,2991],{"id":2983,"content":2984},"6a43e6e5aa5d9812cabda076",{"root":2985},{"type":168,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2986,"direction":28},[2987],{"type":173,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2988,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[2989],{"mode":176,"text":2990,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"En tant que petite économie ouverte, la Suisse et ses entreprises ne sont pas épargnées par de telles sanctions. Non exhaustif à bien des égards, notre cadre d’analyse permet d’estimer leur impact. Notre univers de 44 sociétés suisses couvre 75% de l’indice Swiss Performance Index (SPI) et montre une exposition moyenne aux tarifs entre 5 et 6%, qui repose sur une part des ventes aux US de 25%, dont la part importée s’élève à 20% . La capacité des entreprises à absorber ce choc est déterminante. Toutes choses étant égales par ailleurs et face à un tarif de 31%, 11% des firmes devraient augmenter leur prix entre 5 et 10%, 23% devraient l’augmenter entre 1 et 5%, tandis que 66% ne seraient pas ou peu impacté, avec une hausse de prix nécessaire inférieure à 1%. Plusieurs raisons expliquent cette faible exposition. ",{"id":2992,"content":2993},"6a43e6f0aa5d9812cabda077",{"root":2994},{"type":168,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2995,"direction":28},[2996],{"type":173,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":2997,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[2998],{"mode":176,"text":2999,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"Certains acteurs servent un marché purement domestique à l’image de Galenica alors que d’autres sont faiblement exposés aux US comme Geberit. Nestlé ou Lindt & Sprüngli produisent là où ils vendent, les habitudes alimentaires favorisant une production locale, tandis que Sika et Holcim, acteurs de la construction, produisent localement pour satisfaire aux exigences locales. A l’inverse, une minorité d’acteurs importent l’entièreté ou une grande partie de leurs ventes américaines. Ils produisent des composants médicaux, industriels ou informatiques assemblées d’une part en Suisse, pour ceux à haute valeur ajoutée, et d’autre part dans des pays à faibles coûts pour les composants aux fonctionnalités basiques ou le volume prédomine.","Aspect","microéconomique",{"id":3003,"colorVariation":345,"blockName":28,"columns":3004,"blockType":340,"titleStart":3021,"titleEnd":1279},"6a43e6faaa5d9812cabda078",[3005],{"id":3006,"content":3007},"6a43e707aa5d9812cabda079",{"root":3008},{"type":168,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":3009,"direction":28},[3010,3014,3017],{"type":173,"format":652,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":3011,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[3012],{"mode":176,"text":3013,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"Le pouvoir sur les prix offre un levier puissant permettant d’absorber tout ou partie des tarifs. Une augmentation de prix de 1% permet à une société dotée d’une marge de 15% et d’une base de coût égale à 85% de ses ventes, d’accroître son profit opérationnel de 7%. On décèle le pouvoir sur le prix au travers d’attributs plus ou moins tangibles. La capacité de Sika à inventer des formulations qui améliorent les propriétés du béton peut justifier un incrément de prix. La position dominante de VAT, fabricant de vannes à vide qui possède près de 75% de parts de marché dans son segment semiconducteurs, favorise la prise de prix. Geberit délivre ses produits sanitaires via des distributeurs, ce qui réduit le pouvoir de négociation de l’acheteur. Non suisse, mais illustratif, le modèle d’affaire du constructeur italien Ferrari exploite l’effet de rareté associé à une faible élasticité-prix, ce qui lui a permis d’annoncer une hausse de prix jusqu’à 10% sur ses modèles américains afin de contrer les tarifs de 25% sur les automobiles importés depuis l’UE.",{"type":173,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":3015,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[3016],{"mode":176,"text":862,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},{"type":173,"format":652,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":3018,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[3019],{"mode":176,"text":3020,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"Favorisée par le pouvoir du prix, une forte marge fournit un second niveau d’absorption. L’exemple d’un groupe suisse qui écoule 19 % de ses ventes aux Etats-Unis, toutes importées de Suisse et dont la marge brute s’élève à 80 %, peut absorber au niveau du profit brut la quasi-totalité d’un tarif de 31%. Outre les facteurs mentionnés, de nombreuses sociétés suisses disposent d’une chaîne de production flexible à l’image de Sulzer, qui pourrait rapatrier une partie de la production de ses pompes depuis le Mexique vers les US.","Le pouvoir du prix",{"id":3023,"colorVariation":345,"blockName":28,"columns":3024,"blockType":340,"titleStart":1279,"titleEnd":3034},"6a43e71caa5d9812cabda07a",[3025],{"id":3026,"content":3027},"6a43e723aa5d9812cabda07b",{"root":3028},{"type":168,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":3029,"direction":28},[3030],{"type":173,"format":652,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":3031,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[3032],{"mode":176,"text":3033,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"Personne ne peut prédire avec exactitude l’impact d’une reconfiguration de l’ordre du commerce mondial. Néanmoins, tenter d’identifier les modèles d’affaires résilients capables de protéger leurs marges et la génération de cash reste sous notre contrôle.","Résilience en période d’incertitude ",{"id":3036,"colorVariation":271,"blockName":28,"columns":3037,"blockType":340},"6a43e729aa5d9812cabda07c",[3038],{"id":3039,"content":3040},"6a43e730aa5d9812cabda07d",{"root":3041},{"type":168,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":3042,"direction":28},[3043],{"type":173,"format":652,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":3044,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":4},[3045,3047],{"mode":176,"text":3046,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":4,"version":4},"Raphaël Membrez",{"mode":176,"text":3048,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4}," est gérant de fonds, membre de l’équipe de gestion de convictions sur les actions suisses et responsable d’un fonds de conviction sur les actions européennes. Auparavant, Il a été analyste et co-gérant d’un fonds en actions suisses chez Landolt & Cie (actuellement ODDO BHF). Il a complété un Executive Program à HEC Paris, est titulaire d’un Master en Finance de Warwick Business School, d’un Bachelor de l’Université de Fribourg (Magna cum laude) et détenteur du CFA.",{"id":1045,"alt":2232,"landscape":3050,"portrait":28,"folder":1654,"thumbnailUrl":2241,"updatedAt":2253,"createdAt":2254},{"id":2234,"updatedAt":2235,"createdAt":2236,"url":2237,"thumbnailURL":28,"filename":2238,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1922,"width":1634,"height":1635,"focalX":33,"focalY":33,"sizes":3051},{"thumbnail":3052,"sm":3053,"md":3054,"lg":3055,"og":3056},{"url":2241,"width":37,"height":38,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1926,"filename":2242},{"url":2244,"width":43,"height":1643,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1930,"filename":2245},{"url":2247,"width":1634,"height":1635,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1922,"filename":2248},{"url":2247,"width":1634,"height":1635,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1922,"filename":2248},{"url":2251,"width":56,"height":57,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1938,"filename":2252},"Chronique de Raphaël Membrez -\nParue dans Allnews - 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