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2025",{"id":1751,"colorVariation":238,"blockName":28,"columns":1752,"blockType":339,"titleStart":1768,"titleEnd":1331},"6a43e688aa5d9812cabda071",[1753],{"id":1754,"content":1755},"6a43e68eaa5d9812cabda072",{"root":1756},{"type":167,"format":168,"indent":169,"version":4,"children":1757,"direction":28},[1758,1762,1764],{"type":172,"format":168,"indent":169,"version":4,"children":1759,"direction":28,"textStyle":168,"textFormat":483},[1760],{"mode":175,"text":1761,"type":177,"style":168,"detail":169,"format":483,"version":4},"We thought that recent history had taught us a few lessons in resilience…",{"type":172,"format":168,"indent":169,"version":4,"children":1763,"direction":28,"textStyle":168,"textFormat":169},[],{"type":172,"format":168,"indent":169,"version":4,"children":1765,"direction":28,"textStyle":168,"textFormat":169},[1766],{"mode":175,"text":1767,"type":177,"style":168,"detail":169,"format":169,"version":4},"Donald Trump preferred to brandish a small-format placard, no doubt in order to better withstand the strong wind of that day, to unveil big figures that triggered a storm. These figures are the tariffs imposed on the trading partners of the United States, sternly portrayed by the president on that 2 April. The European Union, threatened with a tariff of 20 per cent, \"may look nice on the surface but it rips us off so often, it's sad and pathetic,\" he then declared.","All very tough on us?",{"id":1770,"colorVariation":344,"blockName":28,"columns":1771,"blockType":339,"titleStart":1781,"titleEnd":1331},"6a43e6aaaa5d9812cabda073",[1772],{"id":1773,"content":1774},"6a43e6b0aa5d9812cabda074",{"root":1775},{"type":167,"format":168,"indent":169,"version":4,"children":1776,"direction":28},[1777],{"type":172,"format":168,"indent":169,"version":4,"children":1778,"direction":28,"textStyle":168,"textFormat":169},[1779],{"mode":175,"text":1780,"type":177,"style":168,"detail":169,"format":169,"version":4},"The Bretton Woods agreements of 1944, which formalised the role of the US dollar as the international reserve currency, offer a key to reading the current earthquake. The structural demand for the greenback is said to have led to its appreciation and to asymmetries in trade, penalising American competitiveness. According to Donald Trump, the loss of industrial capacity has even weakened American defence. All this justifies a state of emergency, with as a remedy the deployment of reciprocal tariffs in order to rebalance global trade.","Bargaining lever in the face of the dollar's ascent",{"id":1783,"colorVariation":268,"blockName":28,"columns":1784,"blockType":339,"titleStart":1803,"titleEnd":1804},"6a43e6deaa5d9812cabda075",[1785,1794],{"id":1786,"content":1787},"6a43e6e5aa5d9812cabda076",{"root":1788},{"type":167,"format":168,"indent":169,"version":4,"children":1789,"direction":28},[1790],{"type":172,"format":168,"indent":169,"version":4,"children":1791,"direction":28,"textStyle":168,"textFormat":169},[1792],{"mode":175,"text":1793,"type":177,"style":168,"detail":169,"format":169,"version":4},"As a small open economy, Switzerland and its companies are not spared by such sanctions. Non-exhaustive in many respects, our analytical framework makes it possible to estimate their impact. Our universe of 44 Swiss companies covers 75% of the Swiss Performance Index (SPI) and shows an average exposure to tariffs of between 5 and 6%, which rests on a US sales share of 25%, of which the imported share amounts to 20%. Companies' capacity to absorb this shock is decisive. All else being equal and faced with a tariff of 31%, 11% of the firms would have to increase their prices by between 5 and 10%, 23% would have to increase them by between 1 and 5%, while 66% would not be affected, or only slightly, with a necessary price increase of less than 1%. Several reasons explain this low exposure. ",{"id":1795,"content":1796},"6a43e6f0aa5d9812cabda077",{"root":1797},{"type":167,"format":168,"indent":169,"version":4,"children":1798,"direction":28},[1799],{"type":172,"format":168,"indent":169,"version":4,"children":1800,"direction":28,"textStyle":168,"textFormat":169},[1801],{"mode":175,"text":1802,"type":177,"style":168,"detail":169,"format":169,"version":4},"Some players serve a purely domestic market, like Galenica, while others are weakly exposed to the US, like Geberit. Nestlé or Lindt & Sprüngli produce where they sell, dietary habits favouring local production, while Sika and Holcim, construction players, produce locally to meet local requirements. Conversely, a minority of players import all or a large part of their American sales. They produce medical, industrial or computing components assembled partly in Switzerland, for those with high added value, and partly in low-cost countries for components with basic functionalities where volume predominates.","Microeconomic","aspect",{"id":1806,"colorVariation":344,"blockName":28,"columns":1807,"blockType":339,"titleStart":1823,"titleEnd":1824},"6a43e6faaa5d9812cabda078",[1808],{"id":1809,"content":1810},"6a43e707aa5d9812cabda079",{"root":1811},{"type":167,"format":168,"indent":169,"version":4,"children":1812,"direction":28},[1813,1817,1819],{"type":172,"format":168,"indent":169,"version":4,"children":1814,"direction":28,"textStyle":168,"textFormat":169},[1815],{"mode":175,"text":1816,"type":177,"style":168,"detail":169,"format":169,"version":4},"Pricing power offers a powerful lever making it possible to absorb all or part of the tariffs. A price increase of 1% allows a company with a margin of 15% and a cost base equal to 85% of its sales to increase its operating profit by 7%. Pricing power can be detected through more or less tangible attributes. Sika's capacity to invent formulations that improve the properties of concrete can justify a price increment. The dominant position of VAT, a manufacturer of vacuum valves that holds nearly 75% market share in its semiconductor segment, favours the taking of price. Geberit delivers its sanitary products through distributors, which reduces the buyer's bargaining power. Non-Swiss, but illustrative, the business model of the Italian manufacturer Ferrari exploits the scarcity effect associated with a low price elasticity, which allowed it to announce a price increase of up to 10% on its American models in order to counter the 25% tariffs on automobiles imported from the EU.",{"type":172,"format":168,"indent":169,"version":4,"children":1818,"direction":28,"textStyle":168,"textFormat":169},[],{"type":172,"format":168,"indent":169,"version":4,"children":1820,"direction":28,"textStyle":168,"textFormat":169},[1821],{"mode":175,"text":1822,"type":177,"style":168,"detail":169,"format":169,"version":4},"Favoured by pricing power, a high margin provides a second level of absorption. The example of a Swiss group that sells 19% of its sales in the United States, all imported from Switzerland, and whose gross margin amounts to 80%, can absorb at the gross-profit level almost all of a 31% tariff. Beyond the factors mentioned, many Swiss companies have a flexible production chain, like Sulzer, which could repatriate part of the production of its pumps from Mexico to the US.","The power of price","  ",{"id":1826,"colorVariation":344,"blockName":28,"columns":1827,"blockType":339,"titleStart":1331,"titleEnd":1837},"6a43e71caa5d9812cabda07a",[1828],{"id":1829,"content":1830},"6a43e723aa5d9812cabda07b",{"root":1831},{"type":167,"format":168,"indent":169,"version":4,"children":1832,"direction":28},[1833],{"type":172,"format":168,"indent":169,"version":4,"children":1834,"direction":28,"textStyle":168,"textFormat":169},[1835],{"mode":175,"text":1836,"type":177,"style":168,"detail":169,"format":169,"version":4},"No one can predict with precision the impact of a reconfiguration of the world trade order. Nevertheless, attempting to identify the resilient business models capable of protecting their margins and their cash generation remains within our control.","Resilience in a period of uncertainty",{"id":1839,"colorVariation":268,"blockName":28,"columns":1840,"blockType":339,"titleStart":1331,"titleEnd":1331},"6a43e729aa5d9812cabda07c",[1841],{"id":1842,"content":1843},"6a43e730aa5d9812cabda07d",{"root":1844},{"type":167,"format":168,"indent":169,"version":4,"children":1845,"direction":28},[1846],{"type":172,"format":168,"indent":169,"version":4,"children":1847,"direction":28,"textStyle":168,"textFormat":4},[1848,1850],{"mode":175,"text":1849,"type":177,"style":168,"detail":169,"format":4,"version":4},"Raphaël Membrez",{"mode":175,"text":1851,"type":177,"style":168,"detail":169,"format":169,"version":4}," is a fund manager, member of the Swiss equities conviction management team and responsible for a conviction fund on European equities. Previously, he was an analyst and co-manager of a Swiss equities fund at Landolt & Cie (currently ODDO BHF). 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",[],{"id":1638,"layout":1940,"previewImage":2067,"title":2075,"excerpt":2076,"publishedDate":1882,"tags":2077,"slug":2078,"updatedAt":1887,"createdAt":1888},[1941,1978,1996,2007,2027,2045,2056],{"id":1641,"colorVariation":238,"backgroundImage":1942,"foregroundImage":1957,"blockName":28,"blockType":255,"eyebrow":1965,"title":1966,"content":1967},{"id":1643,"alt":1644,"landscape":1943,"portrait":1950,"folder":1702,"thumbnailUrl":1655,"updatedAt":1703,"createdAt":1704},{"id":1646,"updatedAt":1647,"createdAt":1648,"url":1649,"thumbnailURL":28,"filename":1650,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1651,"width":75,"height":1652,"focalX":33,"focalY":33,"sizes":1944},{"thumbnail":1945,"sm":1946,"md":1947,"lg":1948,"og":1949},{"url":1655,"width":37,"height":38,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1656,"filename":1657},{"url":1659,"width":43,"height":1660,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1661,"filename":1662},{"url":1664,"width":48,"height":1665,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1666,"filename":1667},{"url":1669,"width":75,"height":1652,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1651,"filename":1670},{"url":1672,"width":56,"height":57,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1673,"filename":1674},{"id":1676,"updatedAt":1677,"createdAt":1678,"url":1679,"thumbnailURL":28,"filename":1680,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1681,"width":1682,"height":1683,"focalX":33,"focalY":33,"sizes":1951},{"thumbnail":1952,"sm":1953,"md":1954,"lg":1955,"og":1956},{"url":1686,"width":37,"height":38,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1687,"filename":1688},{"url":1690,"width":43,"height":1691,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1692,"filename":1693},{"url":1695,"width":1682,"height":1683,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1681,"filename":1696},{"url":1695,"width":1682,"height":1683,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1681,"filename":1696},{"url":1699,"width":56,"height":57,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1700,"filename":1701},{"id":1706,"alt":1707,"landscape":1958,"portrait":28,"folder":1702,"thumbnailUrl":1717,"updatedAt":1735,"createdAt":1736},{"id":1709,"updatedAt":1710,"createdAt":1711,"url":1712,"thumbnailURL":28,"filename":1713,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1714,"width":75,"height":1652,"focalX":33,"focalY":33,"sizes":1959},{"thumbnail":1960,"sm":1961,"md":1962,"lg":1963,"og":1964},{"url":1717,"width":37,"height":38,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1718,"filename":1719},{"url":1721,"width":43,"height":1660,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1722,"filename":1723},{"url":1725,"width":48,"height":1665,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1726,"filename":1727},{"url":1729,"width":75,"height":1652,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1714,"filename":1730},{"url":1732,"width":56,"height":57,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1733,"filename":1734},"9 mai 2025","La qualité suisse face \nà un nouvel ordre mondial",{"root":1968},{"type":167,"format":168,"indent":169,"version":4,"children":1969,"direction":28},[1970,1974],{"type":172,"format":168,"indent":169,"version":4,"children":1971,"direction":28,"textStyle":168,"textFormat":169},[1972],{"mode":175,"text":1973,"type":177,"style":168,"detail":169,"format":169,"version":4},"Chronique de Raphaël Membrez ",{"type":172,"format":168,"indent":169,"version":4,"children":1975,"direction":28,"textStyle":168,"textFormat":169},[1976],{"mode":175,"text":1977,"type":177,"style":168,"detail":169,"format":169,"version":4},"Parue dans Allnews - mai 2025",{"id":1751,"colorVariation":238,"blockName":28,"columns":1979,"blockType":339,"titleStart":1995,"titleEnd":1331},[1980],{"id":1754,"content":1981},{"root":1982},{"type":167,"format":168,"indent":169,"version":4,"children":1983,"direction":28},[1984,1988,1991],{"type":172,"format":646,"indent":169,"version":4,"children":1985,"direction":28,"textStyle":168,"textFormat":483},[1986],{"mode":175,"text":1987,"type":177,"style":168,"detail":169,"format":483,"version":4},"On pensait que l’histoire récente nous avait enseigné quelques leçons de résilience…",{"type":172,"format":168,"indent":169,"version":4,"children":1989,"direction":28,"textStyle":168,"textFormat":169},[1990],{"mode":175,"text":293,"type":177,"style":168,"detail":169,"format":169,"version":4},{"type":172,"format":646,"indent":169,"version":4,"children":1992,"direction":28,"textStyle":168,"textFormat":169},[1993],{"mode":175,"text":1994,"type":177,"style":168,"detail":169,"format":169,"version":4},"Donald Trump a préféré brandir une pancarte de petit format, sans doute afin de mieux résister au fort vent de ce jour-là, pour dévoiler de gros chiffres qui ont déclenché une tempête. Ces chiffres, ce sont les tarifs imposés aux partenaires commerciaux des Etats-Unis, dépeint avec sévérité par le président en ce 2 avril. L’Union européenne, menacée d’un tarif de 20 pour cent « peut sembler gentille en apparence mais elle nous arnaque si souvent, c’est triste et pathétique » a-t-il alors déclaré.","Tous très durs envers nous ?",{"id":1770,"colorVariation":344,"blockName":28,"columns":1997,"blockType":339,"titleStart":1331,"titleEnd":2006},[1998],{"id":1773,"content":1999},{"root":2000},{"type":167,"format":168,"indent":169,"version":4,"children":2001,"direction":28},[2002],{"type":172,"format":646,"indent":169,"version":4,"children":2003,"direction":28,"textStyle":168,"textFormat":169},[2004],{"mode":175,"text":2005,"type":177,"style":168,"detail":169,"format":169,"version":4},"Les accords de Bretton Woods de 1944, qui ont formalisé le rôle du dollar américain comme devise de réserve internationale, offrent une clé de lecture sur le séisme actuel. La demande structurelle pour le billet vert aurait conduit à son appréciation et a des asymétries dans les échanges commerciaux, pénalisant la compétitivité américaine. Selon Donald Trump, la perte de capacité industrielle aurait même affaibli la défense américaine. Tout cela justifie un état d’urgence, avec comme remède le déploiement de tarifs réciproques afin de rééquilibrer les échanges globaux.","Levier de négociation face à l’ascension du dollar",{"id":1783,"colorVariation":268,"blockName":28,"columns":2008,"blockType":339,"titleStart":2025,"titleEnd":2026},[2009,2017],{"id":1786,"content":2010},{"root":2011},{"type":167,"format":168,"indent":169,"version":4,"children":2012,"direction":28},[2013],{"type":172,"format":168,"indent":169,"version":4,"children":2014,"direction":28,"textStyle":168,"textFormat":169},[2015],{"mode":175,"text":2016,"type":177,"style":168,"detail":169,"format":169,"version":4},"En tant que petite économie ouverte, la Suisse et ses entreprises ne sont pas épargnées par de telles sanctions. Non exhaustif à bien des égards, notre cadre d’analyse permet d’estimer leur impact. Notre univers de 44 sociétés suisses couvre 75% de l’indice Swiss Performance Index (SPI) et montre une exposition moyenne aux tarifs entre 5 et 6%, qui repose sur une part des ventes aux US de 25%, dont la part importée s’élève à 20% . La capacité des entreprises à absorber ce choc est déterminante. Toutes choses étant égales par ailleurs et face à un tarif de 31%, 11% des firmes devraient augmenter leur prix entre 5 et 10%, 23% devraient l’augmenter entre 1 et 5%, tandis que 66% ne seraient pas ou peu impacté, avec une hausse de prix nécessaire inférieure à 1%. Plusieurs raisons expliquent cette faible exposition. ",{"id":1795,"content":2018},{"root":2019},{"type":167,"format":168,"indent":169,"version":4,"children":2020,"direction":28},[2021],{"type":172,"format":168,"indent":169,"version":4,"children":2022,"direction":28,"textStyle":168,"textFormat":169},[2023],{"mode":175,"text":2024,"type":177,"style":168,"detail":169,"format":169,"version":4},"Certains acteurs servent un marché purement domestique à l’image de Galenica alors que d’autres sont faiblement exposés aux US comme Geberit. Nestlé ou Lindt & Sprüngli produisent là où ils vendent, les habitudes alimentaires favorisant une production locale, tandis que Sika et Holcim, acteurs de la construction, produisent localement pour satisfaire aux exigences locales. A l’inverse, une minorité d’acteurs importent l’entièreté ou une grande partie de leurs ventes américaines. Ils produisent des composants médicaux, industriels ou informatiques assemblées d’une part en Suisse, pour ceux à haute valeur ajoutée, et d’autre part dans des pays à faibles coûts pour les composants aux fonctionnalités basiques ou le volume prédomine.","Aspect","microéconomique",{"id":1806,"colorVariation":344,"blockName":28,"columns":2028,"blockType":339,"titleStart":2044,"titleEnd":1331},[2029],{"id":1809,"content":2030},{"root":2031},{"type":167,"format":168,"indent":169,"version":4,"children":2032,"direction":28},[2033,2037,2040],{"type":172,"format":646,"indent":169,"version":4,"children":2034,"direction":28,"textStyle":168,"textFormat":169},[2035],{"mode":175,"text":2036,"type":177,"style":168,"detail":169,"format":169,"version":4},"Le pouvoir sur les prix offre un levier puissant permettant d’absorber tout ou partie des tarifs. Une augmentation de prix de 1% permet à une société dotée d’une marge de 15% et d’une base de coût égale à 85% de ses ventes, d’accroître son profit opérationnel de 7%. On décèle le pouvoir sur le prix au travers d’attributs plus ou moins tangibles. La capacité de Sika à inventer des formulations qui améliorent les propriétés du béton peut justifier un incrément de prix. La position dominante de VAT, fabricant de vannes à vide qui possède près de 75% de parts de marché dans son segment semiconducteurs, favorise la prise de prix. Geberit délivre ses produits sanitaires via des distributeurs, ce qui réduit le pouvoir de négociation de l’acheteur. Non suisse, mais illustratif, le modèle d’affaire du constructeur italien Ferrari exploite l’effet de rareté associé à une faible élasticité-prix, ce qui lui a permis d’annoncer une hausse de prix jusqu’à 10% sur ses modèles américains afin de contrer les tarifs de 25% sur les automobiles importés depuis l’UE.",{"type":172,"format":168,"indent":169,"version":4,"children":2038,"direction":28,"textStyle":168,"textFormat":169},[2039],{"mode":175,"text":293,"type":177,"style":168,"detail":169,"format":169,"version":4},{"type":172,"format":646,"indent":169,"version":4,"children":2041,"direction":28,"textStyle":168,"textFormat":169},[2042],{"mode":175,"text":2043,"type":177,"style":168,"detail":169,"format":169,"version":4},"Favorisée par le pouvoir du prix, une forte marge fournit un second niveau d’absorption. L’exemple d’un groupe suisse qui écoule 19 % de ses ventes aux Etats-Unis, toutes importées de Suisse et dont la marge brute s’élève à 80 %, peut absorber au niveau du profit brut la quasi-totalité d’un tarif de 31%. Outre les facteurs mentionnés, de nombreuses sociétés suisses disposent d’une chaîne de production flexible à l’image de Sulzer, qui pourrait rapatrier une partie de la production de ses pompes depuis le Mexique vers les US.","Le pouvoir du prix",{"id":1826,"colorVariation":344,"blockName":28,"columns":2046,"blockType":339,"titleStart":1331,"titleEnd":2055},[2047],{"id":1829,"content":2048},{"root":2049},{"type":167,"format":168,"indent":169,"version":4,"children":2050,"direction":28},[2051],{"type":172,"format":646,"indent":169,"version":4,"children":2052,"direction":28,"textStyle":168,"textFormat":169},[2053],{"mode":175,"text":2054,"type":177,"style":168,"detail":169,"format":169,"version":4},"Personne ne peut prédire avec exactitude l’impact d’une reconfiguration de l’ordre du commerce mondial. Néanmoins, tenter d’identifier les modèles d’affaires résilients capables de protéger leurs marges et la génération de cash reste sous notre contrôle.","Résilience en période d’incertitude ",{"id":1839,"colorVariation":268,"blockName":28,"columns":2057,"blockType":339},[2058],{"id":1842,"content":2059},{"root":2060},{"type":167,"format":168,"indent":169,"version":4,"children":2061,"direction":28},[2062],{"type":172,"format":646,"indent":169,"version":4,"children":2063,"direction":28,"textStyle":168,"textFormat":4},[2064,2065],{"mode":175,"text":1849,"type":177,"style":168,"detail":169,"format":4,"version":4},{"mode":175,"text":2066,"type":177,"style":168,"detail":169,"format":169,"version":4}," est gérant de fonds, membre de l’équipe de gestion de convictions sur les actions suisses et responsable d’un fonds de conviction sur les actions européennes. Auparavant, Il a été analyste et co-gérant d’un fonds en actions suisses chez Landolt & Cie (actuellement ODDO BHF). Il a complété un Executive Program à HEC Paris, est titulaire d’un Master en Finance de Warwick Business School, d’un Bachelor de l’Université de Fribourg (Magna cum laude) et détenteur du CFA.",{"id":1070,"alt":1853,"landscape":2068,"portrait":28,"folder":1702,"thumbnailUrl":1864,"updatedAt":1879,"createdAt":1880},{"id":1855,"updatedAt":1856,"createdAt":1857,"url":1858,"thumbnailURL":28,"filename":1859,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1860,"width":1861,"height":1861,"focalX":33,"focalY":33,"sizes":2069},{"thumbnail":2070,"sm":2071,"md":2072,"lg":2073,"og":2074},{"url":1864,"width":37,"height":38,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1865,"filename":1866},{"url":1868,"width":43,"height":43,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1869,"filename":1870},{"url":1872,"width":1861,"height":1861,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1860,"filename":1873},{"url":1872,"width":1861,"height":1861,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1860,"filename":1873},{"url":1876,"width":56,"height":57,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1877,"filename":1878},"La qualité suisse 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La domanda strutturale per il biglietto verde avrebbe portato al suo apprezzamento e ad asimmetrie negli scambi commerciali, penalizzando la competitività americana. Secondo Donald Trump, la perdita di capacità industriale avrebbe persino indebolito la difesa americana. Tutto ciò giustifica uno stato d'emergenza, con come rimedio il dispiegamento di dazi reciproci al fine di riequilibrare gli scambi globali.","Leva di negoziazione di fronte all'ascesa del dollaro",{"id":1783,"colorVariation":268,"blockName":28,"columns":2198,"blockType":339,"titleStart":2217,"titleEnd":2218},[2199,2209],{"id":1786,"content":2200},{"root":2201},{"type":167,"format":168,"indent":169,"version":4,"children":2202,"direction":28},[2203,2207],{"type":172,"format":168,"indent":169,"version":4,"children":2204,"direction":28,"textStyle":168,"textFormat":169},[2205],{"mode":175,"text":2206,"type":177,"style":168,"detail":169,"format":169,"version":4},"In quanto piccola economia aperta, la Svizzera e le sue imprese non sono risparmiate da tali sanzioni. Non esaustivo sotto molti aspetti, il nostro quadro d'analisi permette di stimarne l'impatto. Il nostro universo di 44 società svizzere copre il 75% dell'indice Swiss Performance Index (SPI) e mostra un'esposizione media ai dazi tra il 5 e il 6%, che si fonda su una quota di vendite negli USA del 25%, di cui la parte importata ammonta al 20%. La capacità delle imprese di assorbire questo shock è determinante. A parità di condizioni e di fronte a un dazio del 31%, l'11% delle imprese dovrebbe aumentare i propri prezzi tra il 5 e il 10%, il 23% dovrebbe aumentarli tra l'1 e il 5%, mentre il 66% non ne sarebbe impattato o lo sarebbe poco, con un aumento di prezzo necessario inferiore all'1%. Diverse ragioni spiegano questa bassa esposizione. 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Producono componenti medici, industriali o informatici assemblati in parte in Svizzera, per quelli ad alto valore aggiunto, e in parte in Paesi a bassi costi per i componenti dalle funzionalità basilari in cui predomina il volume.","Aspetto","microeconomico",{"id":1806,"colorVariation":344,"blockName":28,"columns":2220,"blockType":339,"titleStart":2235,"titleEnd":1331},[2221],{"id":1809,"content":2222},{"root":2223},{"type":167,"format":168,"indent":169,"version":4,"children":2224,"direction":28},[2225,2229,2231],{"type":172,"format":168,"indent":169,"version":4,"children":2226,"direction":28,"textStyle":168,"textFormat":169},[2227],{"mode":175,"text":2228,"type":177,"style":168,"detail":169,"format":169,"version":4},"Il potere sui prezzi offre una leva potente che permette di assorbire in tutto o in parte i dazi. 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Non svizzero, ma illustrativo, il modello di business del costruttore italiano Ferrari sfrutta l'effetto di rarità associato a una bassa elasticità di prezzo, il che gli ha permesso di annunciare un aumento di prezzo fino al 10% sui suoi modelli americani al fine di contrastare i dazi del 25% sulle automobili importate dall'UE.",{"type":172,"format":168,"indent":169,"version":4,"children":2230,"direction":28,"textStyle":168,"textFormat":169},[],{"type":172,"format":168,"indent":169,"version":4,"children":2232,"direction":28,"textStyle":168,"textFormat":169},[2233],{"mode":175,"text":2234,"type":177,"style":168,"detail":169,"format":169,"version":4},"Favorito dal potere del prezzo, un forte margine fornisce un secondo livello di assorbimento. L'esempio di un gruppo svizzero che smercia il 19% delle sue vendite negli Stati Uniti, tutte importate dalla Svizzera, e il cui margine lordo ammonta all'80%, può assorbire a livello di profitto lordo la quasi totalità di un dazio del 31%. 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Diese Zahlen sind die Zölle, die den Handelspartnern der Vereinigten Staaten auferlegt wurden und die der Präsident an jenem 2. April in scharfen Worten darstellte. Die Europäische Union, mit einem Zoll von 20 Prozent bedroht, «mag oberflächlich betrachtet nett erscheinen, aber sie legt uns so oft herein, es ist traurig und erbärmlich», erklärte er damals.","Alle sehr hart zu uns?",{"id":1770,"colorVariation":344,"blockName":28,"columns":2378,"blockType":339,"titleStart":2387,"titleEnd":1331},[2379],{"id":1773,"content":2380},{"root":2381},{"type":167,"format":168,"indent":169,"version":4,"children":2382,"direction":28},[2383],{"type":172,"format":168,"indent":169,"version":4,"children":2384,"direction":28,"textStyle":168,"textFormat":169},[2385],{"mode":175,"text":2386,"type":177,"style":168,"detail":169,"format":169,"version":4},"Die Bretton-Woods-Abkommen von 1944, die die Rolle des US-Dollars als internationale Reservewährung formalisierten, bieten einen Schlüssel zum Verständnis des aktuellen Bebens. Die strukturelle Nachfrage nach dem Greenback habe zu seiner Aufwertung und zu Asymmetrien im Handel geführt und die amerikanische Wettbewerbsfähigkeit benachteiligt. Laut Donald Trump habe der Verlust der industriellen Kapazität sogar die amerikanische Verteidigung geschwächt. All dies rechtfertigt einen Notstand, mit dem Einsatz reziproker Zölle als Heilmittel, um den globalen Handel neu auszubalancieren.","Verhandlungshebel angesichts des Aufstiegs des Dollars",{"id":1783,"colorVariation":268,"blockName":28,"columns":2389,"blockType":339,"titleStart":2406,"titleEnd":2407},[2390,2398],{"id":1786,"content":2391},{"root":2392},{"type":167,"format":168,"indent":169,"version":4,"children":2393,"direction":28},[2394],{"type":172,"format":168,"indent":169,"version":4,"children":2395,"direction":28,"textStyle":168,"textFormat":169},[2396],{"mode":175,"text":2397,"type":177,"style":168,"detail":169,"format":169,"version":4},"Als kleine offene Volkswirtschaft bleiben die Schweiz und ihre Unternehmen von solchen Sanktionen nicht verschont. In vielerlei Hinsicht nicht abschliessend, erlaubt unser Analyserahmen, deren Auswirkungen abzuschätzen. Unser Universum aus 44 Schweizer Unternehmen deckt 75% des Swiss Performance Index (SPI) ab und zeigt ein durchschnittliches Zollexponierung zwischen 5 und 6%, die auf einem US-Umsatzanteil von 25% beruht, wovon der importierte Anteil 20% ausmacht. Die Fähigkeit der Unternehmen, diesen Schock zu absorbieren, ist entscheidend. Unter sonst gleichen Bedingungen und angesichts eines Zolls von 31% müssten 11% der Firmen ihre Preise um 5 bis 10% erhöhen, 23% müssten sie um 1 bis 5% erhöhen, während 66% nicht oder kaum betroffen wären, mit einer notwendigen Preiserhöhung von weniger als 1%. Mehrere Gründe erklären diese geringe Exponierung. ",{"id":1795,"content":2399},{"root":2400},{"type":167,"format":168,"indent":169,"version":4,"children":2401,"direction":28},[2402],{"type":172,"format":168,"indent":169,"version":4,"children":2403,"direction":28,"textStyle":168,"textFormat":169},[2404],{"mode":175,"text":2405,"type":177,"style":168,"detail":169,"format":169,"version":4},"Gewisse Akteure bedienen einen rein inländischen Markt, wie Galenica, während andere schwach gegenüber den USA exponiert sind, wie Geberit. Nestlé oder Lindt & Sprüngli produzieren dort, wo sie verkaufen, da die Ernährungsgewohnheiten eine lokale Produktion begünstigen, während Sika und Holcim, Akteure des Bauwesens, lokal produzieren, um die lokalen Anforderungen zu erfüllen. Umgekehrt importiert eine Minderheit von Akteuren die Gesamtheit oder einen grossen Teil ihrer amerikanischen Verkäufe. Sie produzieren medizinische, industrielle oder informationstechnische Komponenten, die teils in der Schweiz montiert werden, für jene mit hoher Wertschöpfung, und teils in Ländern mit niedrigen Kosten für Komponenten mit einfachen Funktionalitäten, bei denen das Volumen überwiegt.","Mikroökonomischer","Aspekt",{"id":1806,"colorVariation":344,"blockName":28,"columns":2409,"blockType":339,"titleStart":2424,"titleEnd":1331},[2410],{"id":1809,"content":2411},{"root":2412},{"type":167,"format":168,"indent":169,"version":4,"children":2413,"direction":28},[2414,2418,2420],{"type":172,"format":168,"indent":169,"version":4,"children":2415,"direction":28,"textStyle":168,"textFormat":169},[2416],{"mode":175,"text":2417,"type":177,"style":168,"detail":169,"format":169,"version":4},"Die Preissetzungsmacht bietet einen kraftvollen Hebel, der es erlaubt, die Zölle ganz oder teilweise zu absorbieren. Eine Preiserhöhung von 1% erlaubt einem Unternehmen mit einer Marge von 15% und einer Kostenbasis von 85% seines Umsatzes, seinen operativen Gewinn um 7% zu steigern. Die Preissetzungsmacht lässt sich anhand mehr oder weniger greifbarer Attribute erkennen. Sikas Fähigkeit, Rezepturen zu erfinden, die die Eigenschaften des Betons verbessern, kann einen Preisaufschlag rechtfertigen. Die dominante Position von VAT, einem Hersteller von Vakuumventilen, der in seinem Halbleitersegment nahezu 75% Marktanteil besitzt, begünstigt die Preisdurchsetzung. Geberit liefert seine Sanitärprodukte über Händler, was die Verhandlungsmacht des Käufers verringert. Nicht schweizerisch, aber illustrativ: Das Geschäftsmodell des italienischen Herstellers Ferrari nutzt den Knappheitseffekt in Verbindung mit einer geringen Preiselastizität, was es ihm erlaubte, eine Preiserhöhung von bis zu 10% auf seine amerikanischen Modelle anzukündigen, um den Zöllen von 25% auf aus der EU importierte Automobile entgegenzuwirken.",{"type":172,"format":168,"indent":169,"version":4,"children":2419,"direction":28,"textStyle":168,"textFormat":169},[],{"type":172,"format":168,"indent":169,"version":4,"children":2421,"direction":28,"textStyle":168,"textFormat":169},[2422],{"mode":175,"text":2423,"type":177,"style":168,"detail":169,"format":169,"version":4},"Begünstigt durch die Preissetzungsmacht, bietet eine hohe Marge eine zweite Absorptionsebene. Das Beispiel einer Schweizer Gruppe, die 19% ihres Umsatzes in den Vereinigten Staaten absetzt, allesamt aus der Schweiz importiert, und deren Bruttomarge sich auf 80% beläuft, kann auf Ebene des Bruttogewinns nahezu die Gesamtheit eines Zolls von 31% absorbieren. Neben den erwähnten Faktoren verfügen zahlreiche Schweizer Unternehmen über eine flexible Produktionskette, wie Sulzer, das einen Teil der Produktion seiner Pumpen von Mexiko in die USA zurückverlagern könnte.","Die Macht des Preises",{"id":1826,"colorVariation":344,"blockName":28,"columns":2426,"blockType":339,"titleStart":1331,"titleEnd":2435},[2427],{"id":1829,"content":2428},{"root":2429},{"type":167,"format":168,"indent":169,"version":4,"children":2430,"direction":28},[2431],{"type":172,"format":168,"indent":169,"version":4,"children":2432,"direction":28,"textStyle":168,"textFormat":169},[2433],{"mode":175,"text":2434,"type":177,"style":168,"detail":169,"format":169,"version":4},"Niemand kann mit Genauigkeit die Auswirkungen einer Neuordnung des Welthandels vorhersagen. Gleichwohl bleibt der Versuch, die resilienten Geschäftsmodelle zu identifizieren, die fähig sind, ihre Margen und ihre Cash-Generierung zu schützen, unter unserer Kontrolle.","Resilienz in Zeiten der Unsicherheit",{"id":1839,"colorVariation":268,"blockName":28,"columns":2437,"blockType":339,"titleStart":1331,"titleEnd":1331},[2438],{"id":1842,"content":2439},{"root":2440},{"type":167,"format":168,"indent":169,"version":4,"children":2441,"direction":28},[2442],{"type":172,"format":168,"indent":169,"version":4,"children":2443,"direction":28,"textStyle":168,"textFormat":4},[2444,2446],{"mode":175,"text":2445,"type":177,"style":168,"detail":169,"format":4,"version":4},"Raphaël Membrez ",{"mode":175,"text":2447,"type":177,"style":168,"detail":169,"format":169,"version":4},"ist Fondsmanager, Mitglied des Teams für die Überzeugungsverwaltung Schweizer Aktien und verantwortlich für einen Überzeugungsfonds auf europäische Aktien. Zuvor war er Analyst und Co-Manager eines Schweizer Aktienfonds bei Landolt & Cie (heute ODDO BHF). Er absolvierte ein Executive Program an der HEC Paris, ist Inhaber eines Master in Finance der Warwick Business School, eines Bachelors der Universität Freiburg (Magna cum laude) und CFA-Charterholder.",{"id":1070,"alt":1853,"landscape":2449,"portrait":28,"folder":1702,"thumbnailUrl":1864,"updatedAt":1879,"createdAt":1880},{"id":1855,"updatedAt":1856,"createdAt":1857,"url":1858,"thumbnailURL":28,"filename":1859,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1860,"width":1861,"height":1861,"focalX":33,"focalY":33,"sizes":2450},{"thumbnail":2451,"sm":2452,"md":2453,"lg":2454,"og":2455},{"url":1864,"width":37,"height":38,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1865,"filename":1866},{"url":1868,"width":43,"height":43,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1869,"filename":1870},{"url":1872,"width":1861,"height":1861,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1860,"filename":1873},{"url":1872,"width":1861,"height":1861,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1860,"filename":1873},{"url":1876,"width":56,"height":57,"mimeType":30,"filesize":1877,"filename":1878},"Eine Kolumne von Raphaël Membrez\nErschienen in Allnews - Mai 2025",{"id":4,"name":1702,"slug":1884,"updatedAt":1885,"createdAt":1885},"schweizer-qualität-angesichts-einer-neuen-weltordnung",1790840676894]