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posteriori.",{"type":173,"format":652,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":1709,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[1710],{"mode":176,"text":862,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},{"type":173,"format":652,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":1712,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[1713],{"mode":176,"text":1714,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"En finance, ces événements ont la caractéristique de pouvoir être exogènes : événements naturels, pandémie, guerre, mais aussi de pouvoir être générés par les marchés financiers eux-mêmes sous la forme de bulles spéculatives. Les marchés économiques et financiers ont ainsi connu plusieurs événements mondiaux de ce type, par exemple la bulle immobilière de 2008, souvent classifiés dans la catégorie des cygnes noirs. L’imprévisibilité de ces bulles repose sur le fait de déterminer si elles existent réellement ou non, de mesurer leur évolution et leur capacité à exploser, et surtout, leur impact potentiel sur les marchés et l’économie.",{"id":1716,"colorVariation":460,"blockName":28,"columns":1717,"blockType":340,"titleStart":1746,"titleEnd":1747},"6a3e769579839c6d1a2b12a6",[1718],{"id":1719,"content":1720},"6a3e76a579839c6d1a2b12a7",{"root":1721},{"type":168,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":1722,"direction":28},[1723],{"type":173,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":1724,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[1725,1727,1729,1731,1733,1735,1737,1739,1741,1742,1744],{"mode":176,"text":1726,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"L’irruption de ChatGPT-4 en 2023 a constitué un point tournant dans la compréhension des possibilités de l’IA et dans l’accélération des outils utilisés jusqu’alors. En finance des marchés, le développement rapide de nouveaux dispositifs a permis de généraliser et d’étendre des algorithmes qui étaient, pour certains, déjà avancés (trading haute fréquence, ",{"mode":176,"text":1728,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":499,"version":4},"robot advisory",{"mode":176,"text":1730,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},", ",{"mode":176,"text":1732,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":499,"version":4},"web scraping",{"mode":176,"text":1734,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"), en multipliant également le nombre d’acteurs actifs dans le domaine. Alors que l’accent a été porté dans un premier temps sur les traitements massifs de documents, la synthétisation et la réécriture par les ",{"mode":176,"text":1736,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":499,"version":4},"Large Langage Models",{"mode":176,"text":1738,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4}," (LLM), désormais l’intelligence est de plus en plus utilisée dans l’investissement même, en appliquant en particulier les principes du ",{"mode":176,"text":1740,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":499,"version":4},"machine",{"mode":176,"text":862,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},{"mode":176,"text":1743,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":499,"version":4},"learning",{"mode":176,"text":1745,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},".","Intelligence","artificielle",{"id":1749,"colorVariation":345,"blockName":28,"columns":1750,"blockType":340,"titleStart":1775,"titleEnd":1279},"6a3e76b979839c6d1a2b12a8",[1751],{"id":1752,"content":1753},"6a3e76c679839c6d1a2b12a9",{"root":1754},{"type":168,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":1755,"direction":28},[1756,1764,1767],{"type":173,"format":652,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":1757,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[1758,1760,1762],{"mode":176,"text":1759,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"Les algorithmes de ",{"mode":176,"text":1761,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":499,"version":4},"machine learning",{"mode":176,"text":1763,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4}," sont conçus pour apprendre sur la base de vastes volumes de données financières et pour identifier les tendances et formuler des prédictions ou des décisions sans intervention humaine ou avec une intervention humaine limitée. Cependant, aussi impressionnante soit-elle, la capacité de l’IA à prédire ou à atténuer l’impact des événements particuliers n’est pas assurée. Ceci est lié à la fois au caractère par définition imprévisible du cygne noir, mais également aux caractéristiques de l’apprentissage.",{"type":173,"format":652,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":1765,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[1766],{"mode":176,"text":862,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},{"type":173,"format":652,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":1768,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[1769,1771,1773],{"mode":176,"text":1770,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"En effet, l’objectif général de l’apprentissage est de minimiser l’entropie pour que la distribution prédite soit la plus proche possible de la distribution observée, ayant ainsi tendance à traiter à part ou ignorer les ",{"mode":176,"text":1772,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":499,"version":4},"outliers",{"mode":176,"text":1774,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},", qu’ils soient aberrants ou difficiles à expliquer. L’apprentissage est aussi tributaire de l’accès et de la longueur des données historiques, de leur disponibilité selon les domaines, mais également de l’hypothèse que les données passées, massivement employées, permettent de déterminer des tendances ayant un certain pouvoir prédictif. Enfin, une part importante de la mise au point est d’éviter le « surapprentissage », c’est-à-dire de fonctionner en favorisant les données d’apprentissage au détriment de la capacité de prédiction. Ceci conduit naturellement à écarter ou minimiser les événements particuliers qui ne rentrent pas dans la moyenne.","Machine Learning et cygnes noirs",{"id":1777,"colorVariation":887,"blockName":28,"columns":1778,"blockType":340,"titleStart":1795,"titleEnd":1279},"6a3e76ee79839c6d1a2b12aa",[1779],{"id":1780,"content":1781},"6a3e774079839c6d1a2b12ab",{"root":1782},{"type":168,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":1783,"direction":28},[1784,1788,1791],{"type":173,"format":652,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":1785,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[1786],{"mode":176,"text":1787,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"Les caractéristiques de l’apprentissage, qu’il soit supervisé ou non supervisé, posent la question de la génération d’une bulle particulière et de l’autoproduction d’un cygne noir d’un nouveau genre par la multiplication d’acteurs automatisés dont la diversité serait factice. Selon les principes établis par Shannon, le nombre et la multiplication d’acteurs ne veut pas dire qu’il y a plus d’information, ni que celles-ci soient différentiées. Ceci est illustré par le paradoxe du jeu inventé par Shannon en 1948, qui créé un prédicteur universel discret profitant des biais de l’information fournie (en l’occurrence un expérimentateur qui génère des nombres qui ne sont en réalité pas aléatoires). L’accès facilité à des algorithmes avancés provoque une multiplication des acteurs, mais ceux-ci risquent de traiter les informations de manière similaire. Il est probable que ces acteurs, en faisant des hypothèses semblables et en utilisant essentiellement les mêmes données et les mêmes algorithmes, obtiennent des résultats similaires et renforcent les mêmes prédictions en limitant les possibilités d’arbitrage. Un parallèle, peut être fait avec le trading haute fréquence qui permettait de dégager une surperformance significative tant que le nombre d’acteurs était limité.",{"type":173,"format":652,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":1789,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[1790],{"mode":176,"text":862,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},{"type":173,"format":652,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":1792,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":170},[1793],{"mode":176,"text":1794,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4},"On peut alors se poser la question de savoir si l’utilisation de modèles d’apprentissage permet d’obtenir une meilleure efficience des marchés, en multipliant les acteurs, ou au contraire augmente le risque d’inefficience en reproduisant des acteurs clonés artificiellement. Le paradoxe serait alors que la maturité de l’investissement par IA finisse par reproduire les biais reprochés aux investissements indiciels : concentration excessive, crainte de création de bulle, comportements grégaires. Cependant, elle ne supporte a priori pas les mêmes inconvénients majeurs qui sont associés à ces fonds indexés : manque de surperformance, manque de flexibilité et impossibilité de pouvoir profiter d’opportunités sur le marché.","Petits et gros cygnes",{"id":1797,"colorVariation":271,"blockName":28,"columns":1798,"blockType":340,"titleStart":169,"titleEnd":169},"6a3e776879839c6d1a2b12ac",[1799],{"id":1800,"content":1801},"6a3e776e79839c6d1a2b12ad",{"root":1802},{"type":168,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":1803,"direction":28},[1804],{"type":173,"format":169,"indent":170,"version":4,"children":1805,"direction":28,"textStyle":169,"textFormat":4},[1806,1808],{"mode":176,"text":1807,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":4,"version":4},"Thierry Vessereau",{"mode":176,"text":1809,"type":178,"style":169,"detail":170,"format":170,"version":4}," a rejoint BCGE Asset Management en juillet 2019 en tant que gérant institutionnel sur les fonds passifs et actifs de la gamme Synchrony. Auparavant, il a travaillé de 2005 à 2019 à la banque Pictet & Cie comme chef de projet et de développement, puis comme spécialiste d’investissement du service Indexation de Pictet Asset Management. 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